Orioles Outsider

Tony Pena has an OPS+ of 3

2008-09-06T08:33:00.000-07:00

Orioles fans should at least celebrate that our SS performance wasn't this bad in 2008. Pena has made Luis Hernandez look like Derek Jeter. He's made Freddie Bynum look like Cal Ripken. And so on with the analogies. And the Royals gave this guy, who hasn't ever been a good hitter, over 200 PA this season.

Frank O'Rourke of the 1912 Braves has the worst OPS+ (-11) of any player with at least 200 PA due to his .122/.177/.148. The thing is, O'Rourke was just 17 at the time, and though he would have a long, if not distinguished, major league career, he didn't step foot onto a major league field again until 1917 when he was 22. In fact he played in fewer than 100 games total from 1913 through 1920.In fact, O'Rourke was the last guy to get that much time in the batter's box while putting up an OPS+ of less than 5. You can even bump that number up to 10, and it's still O'Rourke.

You'd probably suspect that even the Royals can't be so inept that they can't find anyone better than Pena. And they're not. As Pena moved to the bench, the Royals have used 27-year-old rookie Mike Aviles who has hit .333 with 7 HR and 24 two baggers in just 80 games. That's not bad. Aviles isn't this good, although he did hit to the tune of a 1.001 OPS at Omaha (albeit in his third PCL stint) and has an .802 career MiL OPS.

But let's discuss the O's SS situation. It's bad. Ugly. Putrid. To the tune of a .213/.250/.274 line (five of the other eight positions have a higher average than that slugging percentage).

Now everyone already knows that, and not much has changed. Juan Castro is now the no questions asked starter after Alex Cintron returned and embarassed himself (even by Orioles' SS standards) and he's actually hit the only two HR by an Orioles SS this season. It's the small victories that drive Orioles fans.

It's easy to tell MacPhail to fix this problem. . .but Fix This Problem Andy MacPhail.

Things aren't getting any prettier on the pitching front. Radhames Liz and Garrett Olson are back in the rotation and getting smacked around like cheap hookers. Their brief respites in Triple A didn't do much for their woes. Chris Waters is still chugging along, showing why he was still in the minors at his advanced age. Lance Cormier made a start this week, and didn't pitch poorly at all. Brian Burres is back. Bryan Bass is here. Fernando Cabrera is out. Rocky Cherry ought to be.

Dennis Sarfate moved back to the pen and has struck out 16 in 11.2 innings since exiting the rotation. He's taken on a bit of a different role, pitching more than an inning in all six of his appearances since moving back to the pen, including three of two or more innings. Still can't throw strikes, but who can?

Not the Orioles. The pitching reached a new low by walking in five runs last night against the Athletics. Kam Mickolio was a big offender there, endearing himself to no one. The Orioles might need another 6-9 righthander if they get rid of Cabrera, a role that Mickolio can certainly fill. Upside for Mickolio: 3 of 4 outs have come via a K. Downside: his WHIP is over 5.00.

The pitching staff is DEAD LAST in the AL in K, BB, and HR. As in worst, less good than every other staff that has taken the field in the AL this season. Has that ever happened? My research, which was limited to the 1899 Cleveland Spiders and the 1930 Phillies, says that it hasn't. It probably has though, just by simple probability, right?

Somehow the Rangers still have a worse ERA, even adjusting for parks. Of course the Rangers also have some 2007 Devil Rays mojo going on with a terrible, terrible defense (.668 DER). They've got a dozen more errors than the next worst team. Are the Rangers glad they signed Michael Young to that big deal now? He can't hit at this point, and he never could field. Hell, Young never really was any thing great as a hitter beyond one terrific year and a bunch of seasons where he piled up 200 hits and an all-star appearance.

Adam Jones is back, which is one of the few reasons to keep watching. Unfortunately besides a longball in his first game back, he's been bad at just 1-14. Jones always looks to be a guy who gives 110% so I'm hoping that this isn't a situation where he pushes himself too quickly just to get back on the field. I don't think that's the case; I don't think the Orioles would allowed one of their prized pieces to be jeopardized by that. But it's a nagging fear for me, one that admittedly has been influenced by his slow start since returning.

DRAFT WATCH - 9th pick, 63-77.

Oh Hello There

2008-08-20T17:11:00.000-07:00

-Melvin Mora is trying to get us all to forget how epically lousy he's been for awhile with an absolutely torrid stretch (.413/.445/.738 [!!] in 137 PA) since the All-Star Break. His line is now at a pretty damn good .283/.341/.485 with 20 HR and 91 RBI. Predictive ability: nearly none, but right now Mora is doing his best to earn his salary.

-The offense is absolutely exploding. They've scored 10 already tonight against Clay Buchholz (take your no-hitter and shove it) and the Red Sox with an out in the fourth to storm back from a 4-0 deficit to take a 10-4 lead. I even spoke too soon on Mora as he hit a HR and has three RBI.

The Birds also had games of 11 and 16 runs over the weekend against the Tigers (including a game where the team got 30 men on base), games of 11 and 8 last weekend against the Indians, and two games of 9 and a game of 7 runs last weekend against the Rangers. It's the 7th time in 32 games since the All-Star Break with double digit runs scored.

-The Sarfate as starter experiment is mercifully over. He had a 10.34 ERA over 4 starts, averaging less than four innings per start and walking 14 batters. That's about all you can really say.

Cal Ripken, 1983

2008-08-08T00:35:00.000-07:00

One of the things I'm looking to do long-term is to calculate WAR for every Oriole season ever. Considering that I'm in the (very) preliminary stages of this, it's going to be a long while (if ever) before I really get down to doing it. Part of the problem is my lack of skill in doing these things where database skills are imperative. The other part is simply deciding what exactly is *the* best way of doing it, meaning which data sources do I use.

As sort of a sanity check, I decided to start with 1983 Cal Ripken. This was, of course, his first MVP season. He had won the Rookie of the Year in '82, but this probably would have been the season where he truly broke out. It was also his first full season at shortstop.

First what I did was to figure his batting runs above average. There were a few ways to do this. I could just look at bb-ref and take their word for it at +40.2 runs. Fangraphs is another option for the lazy, and they check in with an estimate of +32.68. Call it +32.7?

The first one is nice because it adjusts for park. The second one is nice because it changes its run values based on base/out state rather than using a static estimator for the value of a single, double, etc.

I could also recalculate it on my own using a more advanced linear weights formula derived from Base Runs that uses custom weights for each team and year that models the actual run scoring of a particular team. Those weights, as with many more good things, can be found on tangotiger's site. The down side of this estimate - +37.39 - is that while it is more "exact", it is also more context specific - two players on different teams with the same batting events in the same run environment will have different values based on the hitters around them.

So in the end I decided to stick with the +40.2 value found on bb-ref. And not because that was most favorable to Cal.

Next is fielding. I'm using Sean Smith's TotalZone system because it's both the most thorough and the most transparent zone-based historical fielding system that I know exists. He rates Rip at +9 runs with an additional +1.6 on turning the double play, for a total of +10.6 defensively.

Now position. I usually use a position adjustment based on defense (so that we don't assume average 2B = average SS = average LF), but I don't have much confidence in what those numbers should be in 1983 when there was an even larger offensive gap at SS. Luckily Tom Ruane has me covered with his awesome chart which puts the average SS in the 1983 AL at -0.018 run/PA. Taking this and multiplying it by 726 PA gives Rip at staggering +13.1 for position.

RunsAboveAverage = offense+defense+position = 40.2 + 10.6 + 13.1 = +63.9

64 runs. Better than average. Holy Cow, are you kidding me?

Lets sprinkle in an extra +22.5 (a guess, but a good one) for replacement level to put Cal at +86.4 above replacement level. Now use 10.5 runs per win (a guess, but a good one) to convert from runs to win and Cal is at 8.23 WAR.

If I actually continue on with this project, I would think that his 1984 and 1991 seasons would be the only seasons from an Orioles hitter that could touch this one, but I could be wrong. This is a peak level Albert Pujols season. Maybe better. The only qualification is whether our defensive numbers are close to correct. Baseball Prospectus' FRAA has him at +24, and of course we know what his reputation would tell you his fielding was worth back as 22 year old kid. But even if we're wrong and he's -11, making him one of the lesser fielders in the league, he's still up above 6 WAR.

Baseball Prospectus has him at 13 WARP. Great season, but even this one didn't net the Orioles 13 wins.

Bradford Traded to Rays

2008-08-07T17:11:00.000-07:00

Chad Bradford was moved to the Rays today for a Player to Be Named Later. It was an interesting move, and Andy MacPhail had this to say today (Baltimore Sun):

It's no surprise he was attractive to a team that's in first place. We just felt going forward it would give us an opportunity for some others in our organization who have some upside to get a look over the rest of '08 and '09. I think we have that guy [a right-handed setup reliever] in our system, and I'm going to need to fill some other needs, so I can use the dough.

MacPhail may have sold another bill of goods to someone and will actually get a good return for Bradford. More likely, MacPhail realized that the $4.5M owed to Bradford over the next season and a half was greater than his value to the club. Given his comments, that seems to be the likely conclusion, and if so, good for MacPhail not being fooled into thinking that Bradford's 2.45 ERA made him irreplaceable. I was mildly critical of MacPhail after he failed to make a move by the non-waiver trading deadline, but even a small move like this reassures me that he still has his priorities in order. Well done.

One possibility to sure up the bullpen with Bradford going south is Kam Mickolio, a 24 year old obtained from Seattle in the Bedard trade. He's pitched 51.2 innings between Bowie and Norfolk with 54 K and 26 BB and a good number of GB (57%). He seems to be highly thought of so it will be interesting if he gets the call.

Sweet Lou

2008-08-06T15:05:00.000-07:00

Lou Montanez made the most of his debut today as the starting LF going 2-4 with a single and a homer, picking up right where he left off in Bowie. It's imperative that he be given a shot at regular playing time in the next two months, but I'm not sure if I see that happening. Montanez made a fielding error that turned a Mark Teixeira double into a triple, and I doubt that will give Diamond Dave any confidence in letting Montanez start games in CF in place of the injured Adam Jones. I'm assuming that Jay Payton will be there nearly every night.

Trembley juggled the lineup a bit today by sitting Melvin Mora, shifting Aubrey Huff to third, and giving DH responsibilities to Luke Scott. Hopefully if he doesn't trust Montanez in CF (and I'm not sure that he should), Trembley will continue to make an effort to start Montanez four or five days a week by rotating days off for Mora, Huff, and Scott.

I was right yesterday about Chris Waters. He is the new Dave Borkowski or Eric Dubose! The Dave Borkowski that took a shutout into the ninth in his Orioles' debut or the Dubose that pitched to a 3.79 ERA as a part-time starter in 2003, that is. Waters pitched eight innings of shutout ball, allowing just one hit the whole night in a 3-0 win. He's either a poor-man's Brian Burres or a poor-man's Garrett Olson in the long run, so enjoy his good starts while they last.

Markakis hit his 16th HR today off of Ervin Santana. He's good at baseball. So very good.

Wieters Watch

Bowie played a morning game with an 11:05 start time today, and Matt Wieters going 1-3 with 2 BB and his 32nd RBI in 39 games with Bowie. On Tuesday night against Binghamton, Wieters went 1-4 with a single. He's now at .362/.464/.606 for Bowie on the season and .351/.454/.587 on the season.

Prospect guru John Sickels calls Wieters the best prospect in baseball here.

Also in today's game at Bowie, Nolan Reimold went 2-4 with two singles to raise his numbers for the season to .289/.363/.498 at Bowie. As I've said before, he should certainly be in line for a call up to the majors.

Brandon Erbe had a huge night for Frederick last night, combining with two other pitchers on a no-hitter against Salem. Erbe went the first six innings and struck out seven while walking three and hitting two batters. It's the third start this year where Erbe has allowed no runs and either one or zero hits. Erbe has had trouble with the HR ball this year, but if he can keep the ball out of the air a bit more, he's going to have a really strong career.

Jones done, Montanez up

2008-08-05T18:19:00.000-07:00

The story on Adam Jones' injury is that he's now on the DL [Roch] and likely out for the season. Luis Montanez will take his place on the roster getting a well-deserved call up after hitting .335/.385/.601 in Bowie this season with 26 HR. My impression is that he's, at best, better suited for a corner OF spot and, at worse, a poor defender, but here's hoping Diamond Dave Trembley will run him out there every day in CF so that the team can see if his bat will play in the majors. I don't see it happening.

Chris Waters starts tonight! He's basically Dave Borkowski, Eric Dubose, Kurt Birkins or any other random AAA non prospect the Orioles have used this decade so it's not really worth me breaking down his numbers. Act II of Dennis Sarfate as The Starter bombed miserably last night in Anaheim, but this time there were no redeeming Well Ifs. Hopefully Hayden Penn will be up soon.

Wieters Watch

Oh Matthew, you sly dog. He went 1-4 with a BB and HR last night to up his Bowie line to .367/.465/.625. He continues to tempt the OPS GODS by hovering near that mythical 1.100 barrier, ready to break through. For good measure Wieters has a 23/17 BB/K ratio in AA.

Jerome Hoes! Dude (.327/.459/.449) is now the official Sleeper Prospect of Orioles Outsider until such time as he bombs in Aberdeen. LJ is 6th in the GCL in OPS, 1st in walks, and 9th in batting average. Not bad. 18 year old Dominican Garabez Rosa is hitting .336 with 3 HR although you'd like to see more than one walk against 15 K.

Brad Bergesen won his 15th game of the year on Saturday (14th in Bowie). I'm sure not big on wins or even Bergesen, but 15-4, 2.62 is a gaudy line for a 22 year old in AA.

Evaluating Teixeira

2008-08-05T16:33:00.000-07:00

The fans in Baltimore love Mark Teixeira. They want to see Mark Teixeira come home and have almost since the day he was taken by the Texas Rangers in the 2001 first round, two picks before the O's would have had the chance to select him. The fans, or at least a large portion of them, think money should be no object in bringing back the hometown hero.

And they might be right. You won't see me crying if the O's "overpay" to get Teixeira in orange and black. But what is he worth? To establish what qualifies as an overpay, we must answer that question first.

Teixeira is a great hitter. A simple average of his batting runs over the past three seasons has him at +31 with the bat. His current in-season MARCEL has him at +38, but that number is a bit high because the monkey doesn't know about park adjustments. Let's call him +30 offensively though even factoring in a bit of regression, that may be conservative.

Defense plus position is next. Teixeira is a good defender. UZR sees him as a total of +15 runs above the average 1B from '05 to mid '07, above average every season. John Dewan's +/- also likes Teixeira to the tune of +15 plays in total, or about +12 runs. Let's give him a +2, then subtract 9 for position so that Tex becomes -7 as a defensive player relative to all players.

So our total projection becomes +24 runs above average (relative to all players) for 2009. Now add in the estimate that the average player is about 20 runs better than replacement, and you've got Tex now as +44 runs above replacement or about 4.4 WAR. What's next? Well, we can use Tango's salary chart found here. First we have to factor in inflation in the free agent market which bumps these values up by about 10% for the 2009 season.

That means that fair value in the free agent market for Tex is something like 7/129M, 8/138M, or 9/143 given that he's a 4.5 WAR player today. Scott Boras apparently seems to want to set the price at 10/230M which means that a team is paying him to be a 6 WAR player. Even the most generous analysis suggests this is well above where Teixeira should be valued and any team that pays such a contract will likely have grossly overestimated his worth.

But at the same time, none of those "fair" contracts seem like what we would expect the premier free-agent hitter, who also happens to be a Boras client, to get for a long-term free agent contract. Of course this analysis was far from sophisticated, and it may be that a rigorous, theoretically solid projection system would value him at 5.0 WAR in which case anything from 7/151M to 10/180M seem like reasonable free agent contracts.

If the Orioles pay him more will it be a bad move? That depends, as there are assuredly some positive externalities above and beyond his on-field value (e.g. his popularity in Baltimore) which could generate enough revenue to absorb some of the surplus salary. On the other hand, paying fair market value for wins is not always optimal in that wins may also be accrued for less than a cost of 4.9M per WAR. Either way I'm hoping to see Teixeira in an Orioles' uniform next season.

**EDIT** I should be using a lower replacement level for comparison to account for the differences in quality between the NL and the NL. In this case about +2.3 WAR for an average player would be appropriate meaning Tex would be about 4.7 WAR. In that case it really becomes easy to say that paying for either 4.5 WAR or 5.0 WAR is the right salary.

O's take two from Mariners

2008-08-04T00:02:00.001-07:00

The Birds are suddenly winning road games, taking two of three from the Mariners after taking two of three from the Yankees. They also finally got some good starting pitching as Garrett Olson went into the ninth on Friday and Jeremy Guthrie pitched a complete game on Saturday (with help from a HR saving catch from Jay Payton). Friday night was a weird game with the Mariners being shut out until the ninth when they scored five runs. They wound up with 15 hits on the night, but all of them were singles. That's the first time since 2004 a team has had that many hits without getting an extra base hit. Nice.

Danny Cabs allowed seven runs for the third time in four starts. That's. . .well, that's not at all good, folks. The game was tied 4-4 in the bottom of the seventh with Cabrera still on the mound but he got no men out while loading the bases. Jamie Walker came in and the flood gates opened, thanks in part to an error by Alex Cintron.

Adam Jones is apparently injured. Not cool. Pacman was replaced by Jay Payton on Sunday. The worst thing might be that Jones being out means Payton's rotting carcass won't be cut although it would presumably open up an outfield spot for Luis Montanez or Nolan Reimold.

Wieters Watch
Matt Wieters is no longer human. He is a robot from the planet Rygon-7 sent here to destroy the humanoids known as "pitchers". Mighty Matt went 3-3 with three, count 'em, THREE walks en route to reaching base six times. In one game. Then he came back tonight and only went 2-5 with a couple of singles.

Luis Montanez also hit his 26th HR and now leads the Eastern League in everything. Pretty nice.

Who starts for the Orioles on Tuesday? Hayden Penn seems likely, but he got hit with a bat in his start last night and lasted less than an inning. It's time for Penn to see a voodoo expert to see if he actually is cursed. It should be interesting if he does get the nod. I advocated for Penn for a long time, arguing that he wasn't getting a fair shake and that he'd be a better big leaguer than Adam Loewen. The second part of that might wind up true, but the first part is looking wrong as poor performance and injury have derailed him more than the Powers that be.

Penn is still only 23 so even though he debuted way back in the first half of 2005, he's far from ancient. The injuries have thrust him to the background as Garrett Olson took his place as the organization's future middle of the rotation starter who does nothing but own minor league hitters. Penn is out of options after this year so it will be put up or shut up time from him if he gets a few starts in Baltimore.

Of course having said all of this Lance Cormier will be the man for the job.

School of Roch

2008-08-02T16:30:00.000-07:00

Roch Kubatko is back. . . he's back in the saddle again, now blogging for MASN a week after leaving the Baltimore Sun. Good stuff, although MASN really needs to give him his own space on their website. Apparently he's also doing some stuff on the air for them which is good for him.

2007 Draft Review

2008-08-01T22:17:00.000-07:00

Brian Matusz still hasn't signed a contract with the O's but all indications are that it will happen by the August 15th deadline. There's none of the intrigue that was apparent with Matt Wieters last summer, but that's not a complaint because hitting refresh a million times as midnight draws closer just shows me what a crazy person I am. But now that we're a year removed from the 2007 draft signing deadline, it might be a good time to look at the 2007 draft picks and how they've done in their first year or so of pro baseball. So here is a look at the top half-dozen prospects from that draft.

Rd 1 (#5) - C Matt Wieters, Georgia Tech: There's not much doubt that this has been a slam dunk of a pick. Wieters signed late and didn't play for the Orioles last summer, but he has shown extremely advanced skills on both sides of the ball since signing last spring, hitting .347/.447/.585 between Frederick and Bowie leaving as the only question how high he will be ranked this offseason in the various prospect rankings. He would seem to be a lock for top-three status with only Tampa Bay left hander David Price and Saint Louis CF Colby Rasmus challenging him for the top spot.

Rd 5 (#129) - P Jake Arrieta, Texas Christian: Called a "first round talent" by at least one prospect guru type, Arrieta fell to the fifth round and the Orioles made an above-slot offer to get him in the fold. He's had a fine debut season at Frederick with a 2.87 ERA over 20 starts before recently leaving the team to participate in the Olympics for the United States. Arrieta has had some control issue (4.06 BB/9), but he has been dominant (120 K in 113 innings) and should crack top 100 lists this fall.

Rd 20 (#609) - RHP Sean Gleason, Saint Mary's: Gleason had a fine debut at Bluefield (2.93 ERA in 67.2 innings), good enough for the now-22 year old to skip over the New-York Penn League and go right to Delmarva where he's continued to pitch well. In 114.1 innings, he's given up just three HR on the season and his strong ground ball tendencies could bode well for the future.

Rd 7 (#219) - CF Matt Angle, Ohio State: While Ohio State isn't one of the premier collegiate programs these days, it has turned out its share of major leaguers (47 in total) including current White Sox CF Nick Swisher. Not to draw the comparison too-far, but Angle has the great plate discipline that would have made him right at home in Billy Beane's Oakland farm system (where Swisher started) . Unfortunately his lack of power (no HR in three seasons at Ohio State) makes him a much more fringy prospect, but with some solid other numbers (.291 AVG with 97 BB in 167 pro games) and his reputation, both from scouts and statheads, of being a quality defender, he's a guy to keep an eye on.

Rd 16 (#489) - 3B Tyler Kolodny, Woodland Hills, CA: Kolodny was the Orioles' 14th pick but their first dip into the high school ranks in 2007. Kolodny started out in the complex-level Gulf Coast League, ripping pitchers to the tune of a .318/.406/.530 line, good enough to at least rate a mention among the O's better prospects. Now 20 years old, Kolodny has seen his average take a dip at Aberdeen but still has some decent indicators with 17 BB and 11 XBH in 140 AB so far. He'll need to get better, and fast, to have a viable career given that he plays at a corner position, though.

Rd 43 (#1274) - LHP Cole McCurry, Tennessee Wesleyan: Guys drafted outside of the top 1,200 from obscure non-Division I schools don't tend to be great prospects. McCurry isn't great, but he's good enough to be good. Still a month shy of his 23rd birthday, the Orioles have put him on something of a fast track as he already has 13 starts at Delmarva under his belt over the last two seasons. Don't be fooled by his unsightly ERA, his peripherals are good as he's striking out nearly a batter per inning while maintaining good command. He could stand to take a few lessons from Gleason and get the ball down. His home run rates could be an indicator that he'll be exposed when he faces stiffer competition.

Preliminary Grade: A-

Wieters alone makes for a good haul as he's the type of home-grown prospect who generates enough surplus value to make the whole endeavor of scouting and drafting young talent extremely important even with the low success rate. Kudos to the Orioles for ponying up to get him and Arrieta who helps to form a top two that not many organizations can challenge from last year's draft class. The lack of depth is what prevents this draft from being a complete success as the lack of 2nd and 3rd round picks (and the abysmal season of 4th rounder Tim Bascom at Frederick) mean that even the better second-tier prospects seem unlikely to get even cups of coffee at this point.

Brian Roberts, Record Breaker

2008-08-01T19:03:00.001-07:00

Brian Roberts hit his 40th double tonight in game number 108 for the Orioles. Doing some easy math, that projects out to 60 doubles for the 2008 season. That would shatter the AL single-season record for doubles in a season by a switch hitter originally set by. . .Brian Roberts in 2004 with 50. It would also easily beat the major league record set by Lance Berkman in 2001 of 55 two-baggers. It's Roberts' fourth season (2004, 2005, 2007, 2008) with at least 40 2B.

The Baseball-Reference Play Index is fun to play around with when looking for obscure "records" that could be broken. Charlie Gehringer hit 60 two baggers with the Tigers in 1936 to set the record for most doubles by a second baseman - that mark is obviously also within Roberts' reach. BRob also has 8 triples so far, and he could join Gehringer as the only 2B to have 50 2B and 10 3B in the same season.

One record that Roberts won't be catching anytime soon is Craig Biggio's all-time record for a second baseman of 668 doubles. Roberts, now with 251, will need another decade to reach that mark. And when he does, we'll put numbers on the Warehouse (even if he gets traded!) as he chases Tris Speaker's all-time record of 792 doubles.

And speaking of Speaker (har har), one more quick fact. Roberts can become the third player ever to have 50 2B, 30 SB, and 10 3B in the same season joining Speaker of the 1912 Red Sox and Kiki Cuyler of the 1930 Cubs. Meaningless? Rare and Kurkjianian? All of the above.

In-season Marcel Projections

2008-08-01T19:03:00.000-07:00

One of the bigger areas of research in current SABRmetrics is in the design of projection and forecasting systems to predict future performance. There are a bunch of systems popping up, but one of the most interesting is the MARCEL system, developed by Tom Tango. It's not interesting because it's complex, but rather because it's so damn simple. All it does is to take a weighted average of previous seasons, apply some regression to the mean and some age adjustment, and BAM!, there's your projection. It's actually named after Marcel the monkey because of its deliberate simplicity.

It's also interesting because it's completely open-source which means you can actually see where the results come from. And despite this lack of complexity, it still stacks up well to the other projection systems floating around out there. The projections have been typically released before the season, but Sal Baxamusa at the Hardball Times has developed a spreadsheet which you can use to calculate in-season MARCEL projections. Too lazy for that? (I'm nodding my head.) Just head over to Colin Wyers' site where he's written some code and is displaying the projections in real-time.

The best hitter right now - or at least the hitter with the best projection going forward, if you believe there's a difference - is Albert Pujols who checks in with a .333/.438/.603 line. He absolutely laps the field, coming in with a projected OPS over 50 points higher than the nearest competitors. Those competitors are David Ortiz (.293/.404/.586), who still looks good after this season's injury-marred performance, and Alex Rodriguez (.305/.404/.583).

A few Orioles' notables:

Nick Markakis (.303/.378/.481, +24 lwts) - A little pessimistic in my view. Of course I don't say that as an unbiased observer, but rather as a guy who is a huge Markakis fan. I'd still bet the over on that OPS over his next 600 PA.

Aubrey Huff (.270/.335/.456, +6 lwts) - The power of regression to the mean combined with its good friend, aging. Marcel the monkey throws cold water in our faces regarding Huff's big season, projecting him for just a .791 OPS, well in line with the .778 OPS he compiled from 2005-2007. This is why, at best, we should be cautious about Huff even approaching, let alone matching, this season's numbers in 2009.

Luke Scott (.268/.355/.488, +18) - Luke Scott, on the other hand, is a guy we might be able to count on in the future. Or at least next season. The system likes him so much that even with Scott being 30 and putting up a nice season that it thinks he's playing a few points of OPS below what he's capable of doing. Not a bad pickup in the Tejada (current projection: .300/.349/.470[!?]) trade.

Adam Jones (.270/.317/.405, -9) - That's a tick under where he's at this year, and as with Markakis, you think (hope) he can do better than that going forward. One issue with the system is that it doesn't know anything about minor league performance. If we looked at translated minor league stats, as a system like PECOTA does, we'd see why Orioles fans would call that projection pessimistic, but that's one of the issues that you have to be cognizant of with MARCEL.

The worst projection in the system goes to the immortal Corky Miller, a 32 year old journeyman backup catcher with a career .179/.269/.295 line in 378 PA over the last 8 seasons. Even Miller can't be that bad, says Marcel, as he's projected for a .182/.244/.300 line going forward.

All Quiet

2008-08-01T18:40:00.000-07:00

The non-waiver trade deadline came and went without the Orioles moving anyone despite a couple possible sell-high pieces (Huff, Sherrill) and a few Proven Veterans that might have been in demand for a few teams (Hernandez, Millar, Bradford). There's still some time for a deal to be made by August 31st, but it seems like a longshot that Huff and Sherrill, the two biggest pieces to be dealt, would even clear waivers, let alone be traded. Something on the level of last year's Steve Trachsel trade would seem to be the upper limit on what could happen. Perhaps a team gets desperate for middle relief and gives up a nice prospect for Chad Bradford.

The Orioles also made a roster move, sending Brian Burres down to Norfolk and activating Alex Cintron as the Orioles' fascination with having three light-hitting SS on the roster (current version: Castro, Fahey, Cintron) continues. Another roster move would seem likely as the team needs at least one more starter. Garrett Olson and Jeremy Guthrie start the next two days. Then, assuming he appeals his suspension, Daniel Cabrera goes on Sunday in the finale at Seattle. Dennis Sarfate is in line to get his second start on Monday, assuming the team wasn't horrified by his outing against the Yankees. Tuesday's start is still up in there. Bowie's Brad Bergesen and Norfolk's Hayden Penn seem like the likely options with Lance Cormier moving out of the pen perhaps a possibility.

Wieters Watch

Matt Wieters got only one plate appearance for Frederick as a pinch hitter after getting the night off, but he came through with a single to raise his Bowie line to .365/.463/.625 in 104 AB.

Optimal Roster Construction, part 1,401

2008-07-30T15:29:00.000-07:00

The recent roster moves have made it hard to tell what the Orioles are doing with the pitching staff right now, but in the end, there are 13 pitchers on the roster, with only four of them - Dennis Sarfate, Jeremy Guthrie, Garret Olson, and Daniel Cabrera - in the starting rotation.

For the time being, at least until the Orioles make a move to get a fifth starter on the team, there are nine relievers down in the pen. Nine!

Is there ANY need to ever have that many guys in your bullpen? Right now, with Juan Castro slowly taking over the starting SS job, the bench consists of Brandon Fahey, Jay Payton and Guillermo Quiroz. It's been discussed many times before, but that's just an awful bench. Payton is the closest thing to a hitter in the bunch, and he's currently sporting a .653 OPS. The biggest piece of strategy that Trembley can employ in the late innings of a close game is to pinch-hit Payton for Castro, move Payton to LF as a defensive sub for Luke Scott, and insert Fahey as the new SS. That's not really all that viable, but hey, they've made their choice to go for broke on having pitching and defense (supposedly) over any type of offensive flexibility.

But hey, Juan Castro smacked a homerun today, so maybe we've found our SS for the next 25 years? Castro did manage to beat Fahey in the race to get to 1 HR first, even with the head start he spotted Fahey. I'm actually shocked because looking at Castro I thought that even if he made good contact he'd just slap the ball to the outfield at best.

Speaking of Sarfate (we were earlier at least), his first start wasn't a total disaster. Of course I'm grading that from the perspective of "Sarfate won't last three innings" as a baseline. He actually lasted four, striking out five, and allowing just five base runners. Unfortunately all five of those guys (three of whom reached on walks) came around to score so that made for an ugly line. The guy who didn't help himself at all was the guy who just lost his starting spot, Brian Burres. He came into the game in the fifth with the game still in reach (5-2 Yankees) and after pitching a fine fifth inning, got only one out in the sixth before being lifted, eventually being charged with four runs. His roster spot is getting to be pretty tenuous as that ERA climbs close to 6.00 and he struggles in his new role as a long reliever.

Next up could be Hayden Penn or Brad Bergesen. Possibly both, as the Orioles will be needing both a fifth starter and a replacement for Sarfate in the coming weeks. Bergesen just threw a shutout for Bowie in his last start to get his 13th win of the season, and Penn had a nice start down at Norfolk. Neither of these guys are among the best arms down on the farm, but they may be the most ready, so they'll be pressed into action soon enough. Here's hoping Bowie's Jason Berken gets a look too. He's a guy I think has been a bit underrated this season.

Wieters Watch

Matthew "Babe" Wieters and his big blue Ox took it to New Britain last night to the tune of 4-5 with a double and another HR, his 21st of the year. That brings his current line up to a modest .350/.449/.600 with Bowie, .347/.448/.584. With that monster night he actually nudged his AA OPS back ahead of the OPS he had in A ball. Wieters currently ranks fifth in the minors in OPS among those with at least 300 PA, 13th among those with 150 PA.

Prospect Watch (7/29/08)

2008-07-28T16:14:00.000-07:00

98 games (Frederick/Bowie): .341/.446/.572
29 games (Bowie): .330/.440/.560

Wieters drew four walks last night, including two of the intentional variety. That brings his BB/K ratio for the season to 62/63, which shows a pretty damn terrific sense of the strike zone.

Speaking of prospects that have shown great plate discipline, 2008 third round draftee LJ Hoes has done a nice job for the Gulf Coast League Orioles, drawing 17 walks and striking out just 9 times in 99 PA on his way to .333/.449/.444 line. Hoes is still in the very early days of his development, not even having made his way out of the complex leagues yet, but he's had an encouraging debut season so far. Hopefully the Orioles will challenge at least at Bluefield in the last month of the season.

The Adam Loewen Career Retrospective Bonanza

2008-07-26T22:07:00.000-07:00

It was announced last week that after suffering yet another injury, Adam Loewen's pitching career is finished. He'll try to make himself into a 1B/DH/OF to salvage his career, but he won't have nearly the upside he did as a pitcher.

Loewen was drafted fourth overall in the 2002 draft out of high school, three spots above Prince Fielder and eighteen spots above Jeremy Guthrie. It took forever for the Orioles to actually get Loewen signed, long enough for him to play one season of JUCO baseball. The present rules say that all draft picks must be signed by August 15th, but back then (back then? it was only six years ago) teams had a full year to sign draft picks. The O's finally got it done by giving Loewen a Major League contract worth over $4M in late May of 2003.

What that "Major League" adjective meant is that Loewen was immediately put onto the 40 man roster which caused him to be optioned to the minors every season, in effect accelerating his development schedule. In the end, the injuries are what did Loewen in as a pitcher, but he was, in my opinion, rushed through the minors too hastily based on how he actually performed.

Loewen was the prototypical great-stuff-no-control guy in the minors, walking an absurd 67 batters in 93 innings as a 20 year old in Delmarva and Frederick in his first full season. Spending the next season exclusively with the Keys, he walked 86 and hit 14 batters in 142 innings.

Loewen showed improvement at Bowie in 2006 and was soon pitching in Camden Yards. It was a fairly memorable debut in the rotation for Loewen as in his first four starts he was matched up with Randy Johnson, Roy Halladay in back to back starts, and then Tom Glavine in his fourth start. Loewen struggled, and then after a brief stint at Ottawa (his AAA debut), he came back and finished out the season in the Orioles' rotation, finishing with an extremely promising 13 start stretch. In that baker's dozen of starts, Loewen won six times, posting a 4.44 ERA with 66 K, 33 BB, and just 3 HR in 73 innings of work.

It was a fine finish for a then 22 year old Loewen, but the rest is history as injuries marred his 2007 and 2008 seasons. Loewen would make just 10 more starts before calling it quits as a pitcher. Sadly, Loewen won't go down as the biggest recent first round draft bust for the Orioles, or even particularly close - see e.g. Chris Smith, picked seventh overall in 2001.

Now he begins the long road to becoming a major league hitter. While the recent conversion of Rick Ankiel to a bona fide Major League hitter probably gives some the impression that Loewen could do the same, the odds are long. Even if Loewen were a third-round caliber pick, well, only five of the fifteen hitters drafted in the third round in 2002 have made the bigs (one of them being the immortal Val Majewski of the O's). Only Curtis Granderson, and to a lesser extent, Elijah Dukes, have done anything of note, and that's before accounting for the six years of development that Loewen has missed which others with similar skill did not.

So it's been real, Adam. See ya in 2012?

Does Cabrera Have A Future?

2008-07-25T14:15:00.000-07:00

It's hard not to be pessimistic about Daniel Cabrera. Even before being tagged for 14 tuns in his last two starts, Cabrera had yet to show much tangible improvement in his fifth season aside from a nice string of games in May and July which included two complete game victories over the Royals. If anything, Cabrera had gone the opposite way, missing fewer bats and in general looking less overpowering than he had in the past.

Let's look at some of the key Pitch Data Summary from baseball-reference relating to Cabrera's trends which show how "overpowering" he has been over the past three seasons.

%Strikes Thrown: 57%-->58%-->59%
%1st Pitch Strikes: 52%-->55%-->57%

Those are both nice trends for a pitcher that has notably struggled with his control as a young guy. Unfortunately, the average pitcher throws 62% of his pitches for strikes and 58% of his first pitches for strikes so even with steady improvement since 2006, Cabrera is still below average at throwing strikes and at getting ahead in the count.

%Strikes Swinging:18%-->14%-->10%
%Pitches StrS: 10%-->8%-->6%

The first number is the percentage of Cabrera's strikes that have been of the swinging variety while the second number is the percentage of all Cabrera's pitches that have been swinging strikes. That's quite a marked decline. Cabrera is missing fewer and fewer bats, a fact you would expect with his declining strikeout rates. But maybe this, combined with his slightly improved command, means that Cabrera is getting more called strikes, perhaps on the corners.

%Strikes Looking: 30%-->27%-->28%
%Strikes In Play: 26%-->31%-->34%

Nope. Cabrera is actually getting fewer of his strikes as called strikes when compared to 2006. He's simply become more hittable with an 8 percentage point increase in the number of his credited strikes being on balls put into play. The average pitcher, meanwhile, gets 14% of his strikes swinging and 31% on balls in play compared to 10% and 34% in 2008 for Cabrera. One more number.

%Contact: 75%-->81%-->87%

When hitters do swing, they're making contact some 87% of the time, far above the league average of 80%. Once again, Cabrera is simply not missing bats which, when combined with subpar (4.14 BB/9, 14 HBP), is a bad way to go.

Now to look at some fangraphs data. Simply put, Daniel Cabrera is fairly predictable. He's going to throw a heavy dose of fastballs with the occasional slider mixed in. Of all pitchers with at least 80 innings this season - 123 in total - none have used their fastball as often as Cabrera who has done so on 83.6% of his total pitches. Fangraphs says that most (14.1%) of the rest of Cabrera's tosses have been sliders, with the occasional change up being used, although Josh Kalk's Pitch F/X (more from there later). says that all of the surplus non-fastballs are classified as
sliders.

All told, he's throwing tons more fastballs than he did in his best season, 2005, going from about 65% fastballs to nearly 84% fastballs. He has also, according to fangraphs, lost about three mph on his fastball, dropping from an average of a bit over 96 mph to just over 93 mph.

His slider is used most often as his out pitch. The three most likely situations for you to see Daniel Cabrera throw a slider is on 1-2, 2-2, and 3-2 counts. Here is a nifty chart which plots the movement on Cabrera's pitches:

What you're seeing here is how Cabrera's pitches move relative to a pitch thrown with no spin or movement. That green cluster of triangles are Cabrera's sliders. And as you can see, they're clustered somewhere very close to the origin of the graph. Looking at the numbers, Cabrera's slider has little movement, clocking in at (.79, .89) inches in the x and y directions.

Now that's not really all that good. Now I'll be the first to admit that I'm really just starting to learn about how to interpret these pitch F/X graphs and data, but it seems to me that a slider that doesn't really move is going to be troublesome, especially when

a) you use it about once every six pitches and
b) it's really the only thing you throw besides a fastball

Here are a few good pitchers who rely heavily on their slider, and the graphs of their pitch movement, C.C. Sabathia and Jake Peavy.

Sabathia's average slider (-5.04, -0.41) and clocks in at 81.2 mph while Peavy's slider breaks at (5.83, 0.92) while averaging 83.1 mph. Cabrera, meanwhile is at 82.1 mph on his velocity. It shouldn't come as any surprise that Daniel Cabrera's slider isn't as good as the sliders of two of the best pitchers in baseball, but looking at the different in movement is striking. Cabrera's fastball, at least in movement and velocity, does stack up well against that of Peavy and Sabathia, but those pitchers rely on the fastball far less, both having multiple other plus pitches.

For one last piece of information, here is Cabrera's pitch type-movement chart from last season.

Cabrera, last season, got about four inches of movement on his slider. Of course, that didn't lead to results that were notably better than this season's, but qualitatively, it seems logical that a slider with more movement is a key, especially for a two-pitch pitcher. [One note - the 2007 data was based on only about 650 pitches, a small sample of Cabrera's total work. The 2008 data is far more complete.]

So does Cabrera have a future? Unfortunately it would seem unlikely that he'll ever be even a consistently average starter. He's still under team control until after the 2010 season so if he can avoid completely falling off a cliff, he'll have a chance to stick around, at least as a fifth starter, given his cheap price tag. But 138 starts into his Major League career, it's definitely time to stop thinking of Cabrera as a young guy with great stuff who only needs to harness his immense potential. It's just not the case anymore.

First Half Value: Pitchers

2008-07-20T19:49:00.000-07:00

I'm back with the second part of my first half team value breakdown with an analysis of the pitching staff. This one should be easy, right? We have ERA which already gives us our number of runs allowed, so all we need to do is compare that to the average to get a runs above average estimate.

Nope.

ERA = pitching + defense. We've already attempted to account for defense in an earlier post, so now we want to attempt to isolate the pitching component. So how do we do that? We use a defensive-independent pitching metric, in this case FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), a metric that relies solely on those things a pitcher has great control over (K, BB, HR). Lucky for us, FIP is both

a) readily available and
b) scaled to "look like" ERA

So that's nice. Now what we'll do is park adjusment to account for OPACY playing as a slight hitters' park. Luckily, Baseball Reference does that already, telling us that the park adjusted league average ERA for pitchers who play half of their games in OPACY is 4.22 rather than 4.14. What we'll also do is adjust this to scale to Runs Allowed rather than Earned Runs Allowed (as ER vs R is often an arbitrary and nonsensical decision) by adding 0.46 (lgRA - lgERA) to our FIP values. We'll also break this down into starters and relievers; starters have an average park adjusted RA of 4.75 this season while relievers have an average park adjusted RA of 4.24.

Finally, we'll use this equation to convert our numbers into an estimate of runs above or below average for each pitcher:

RAA = ((lgFIPR - FIPR)/9)*IP

where lgFIPR is FIP, adjusted to scale to RA, adjusted for park, and customized for each player based on his mix of starting and relief innings. FIPR is each player's FIP scaled to RA.

Now onto results. Warning: Not for the faint of heart.


Bradford  5.00
Johnson   3.98
CabreraF  1.17
Guthrie   0.90
Castillo -0.01
Cormier  -0.16
Bierd    -0.64
Sherrill -1.20
McCrory  -1.35
Albers   -3.23
Bukvich  -3.34
Sarfate  -3.45
Walker   -4.65
Burres   -6.69
Olson    -6.70
Loewen   -7.41
Aquino   -9.05
Liz      -11.11
CabreraD -13.55
Trachsel -15.25

Oh that's not good. No that isn't good at all.

From a defense-independent perspective, Chad Bradford and Jim Johnson are leading the way, while Jeremy Guthrie is barely above average in 135 IP so far this season. The rest of the team have somewhat obscene values on the negative side of the ledger.

First let's talk about Guthrie. Simply, his peripherals have lagged behind his ERA for two seasons now. His strikeout rate is around average, he gives up a below-average number of walks, and he allows homers at a clip that rates as a bit above average. The key for Guthrie is that he has been much better (.652 OPSA) with runners on base than he has been with the bases empty (.722 OPSA). His BABIP is also low, sitting at .272 for a second straight year, which is interesting now that the sample is about 1300 PA. So, the book here is that Guthrie is stilly likely to regress, but then given that we're working with a decent sample of data here, it's also possible that his peripherals are underrating his true talent.

Either way, there isn't really a ton of dispute about Guthrie being an above average starter, which does have a lot of value, especially when accompanied by a price tag of less than $1MM. On the other hand, the rest of the starters on the team have been absolutely abysmal. Daniel Cabrera has put together some good results so far, but his collapsing strikeout rate and not-so-improved command means he's having a very poor season. Olson and Liz, the two young guys in the rotation, have both been awful, which has to be very discouraging.

Still worse, bullpen guys like Albers and Sarfate that have been fairly successful this season don't fare out too well under this analysis. Albers doesn't get enough strikeouts and Sarfate walks way too many hitters. The result? Both have contributed below average performances.

All told, the pitching staff comes in at an amazing 70+ runs below average. You could just look at the team-by-team FIP numbers and tell that the Orioles weren't going to rate favorably as they are the worst team in the AL in FIP, by a fair margin. So we'll see how this shakes out in a few months. I suspect the analysis will be similar, in which case we'll go back to our annual topic of overhauling the entire staff.

First Half Value: Position Players

2008-07-16T21:40:00.000-07:00

Nearing the 100 game mark, let's take a look at the first half of the season and try to figure out how much each Oriole has been worth this year in terms of runs saved and runs allowed. Today I'm going to evaluate the position players, starting with their offense, which I'll evaluate using BattingRuns, a linear weights style system available at Baseball Reference. Later in this post I'll look at their fielding, and hopefully I'll look at the pitchers in a subsequent post.

Here are every Oriole position player ranked by Batting Runs.

Markakis        21.3
Huff            17.1
Roberts         15.7
Scott           8.3
Salazar         0.7
Moore          -0.3
Torres         -1.1
Cintron        -2.1
Millar         -2.4
Jones          -3
Fahey          -3.9
PITCHERS       -4.7
Quiroz         -5.2
Mora           -5.6
HernandezL     -5.6
Payton         -7.4
HernandezR     -9.9
Bynum          -13.2
TOTAL          -1.3

First of all, the values here are the number of runs above or below average a player has been offensively this season. A value of '0' indicates that a player has performed at exactly the league average. This number has been adjusted based on league and park, but it does not account for positional differences (we'll look at that later), nor does it account for the difference in competition between leagues. It is a counting stat, which means that the absolute value of the statistic will tend to increase as playing time does.

The results here should not be particularly surprising. The entire team rates as being very slightly below average offensively with about 98% of the positive contribution coming from Luke Scott, Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff, and Nick Markakis. In fact, the ONLY other player of the remaining 13 that has generated positive value is Oscar Salazar who had just 18 PA before being send back to Norfolk.

The SS production has been terrible, as expected, with a combined contribution of about -25 runs from the four primary SS options. Freddie Bynum and his .444 OPS over 121 PA has been the worst offender at -13.

So that's interesting. Now let's look at fielding value. This is based off of The Hardball Times' Revised Zone Rating (RZR) and converted to a runs saved estimate using the method used by Justin over on his excellent Reds' site (I also used his method for evaluating catcher defense) to convert to a "+/-" number of plays above or below average before converting to runs using the fact that 0.8 runs are saved for each play made.

What IS included in these rankings: runs saved on balls in and out of zone for non-catchers, relative to the average at their position; runs saved on stolen bases and errors for catchers.

What IS NOT included in these rankings: runs saved based on throwing arm for outfielders or double plays for infielders; runs saved on errors for non-catchers; runs saved on passed balls and wild pitches for catchers.

I hope to expand these numbers at the end of the season by including some of those other aspects of defense, but for now, I'm more interested in a quick-n-dirty look at defensive value.


Markakis        7.49
Roberts         5.63
Jones           2.80
Bynum           2.46
Quiroz          1.20
Millar          0.62
Huff            0.44
Moore           0.40
Torres          0.37
Cintron         0.13
Salazar        -0.66
Fahey          -0.87
Payton         -1.33
HernandezL     -4.03
HernandezR     -4.22
Scott          -6.07
Mora           -15.24

First, a note. Ideally, we want to have a larger sample size of data. And even more ideally, we would want to use UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) rather than RZR as UZR takes a much more granular approach to analyzing the data, or at least another more advanced defensive system. However, RZR does bring us a reasonable approximation of defensive value and indeed correlates very strongly with UZR.

So, how about Melvin Mora? He turns in an absolutely terrible performance at over 15 runs below average. This is mainly as a result of making 15 fewer plays out of zone than would be expected from the number of chances he has had in his zone this season. When someone says that Mora has no range anymore at age 36, it's hard to look at these numbers and argue. He'll likely regress towards the mean somewhat, but there's a good chance that he is the worst fielding regular at 3B in the league.

Nick Markakis rates as the teams best fielder, even without the benefit of accounting for his excellent arm. Adam Jones also rates very well, as we would expect, though perhaps a touch lower than you would guess.

And going back to SS once again, look at those defensive values! The Orioles aren't trading offense for defense; they're punting offense just to get average defense. The numbers rate Bynum as a plus fielder, but his contributions are more than zeroed out by Luis Hernandez poor performance in the field. Is there any question he was the worst Opening Day starter in the league?

[To be fair, Hernandez' error and double play rates look solid at a glance, so perhaps factoring those into the analysis would push him back toward average. Still, average fielding from Luis Hernandez means he isn't particularly close to being a major league starter.]

So now let's add these two values up to get a complete rating system for all the Orioles, right? Nope. We still have to make a positional adjustment to account for the fact that Adam Jones playing CF is more valuable than Aubrey Huff playing DH. That's what our numbers so far don't show. There are a number of run values that are floating around the internet for positional adjustments, but I'll just a variation on the one floating around on Tom Tango's blog.

Markakis      26.16
Roberts       21.88
Huff          10.82
Jones         2.03
Moore         0.12
Salazar      -0.04
Torres       -0.85
Scott        -0.91
Cintron      -1.32
Quiroz       -2.54
Fahey        -4.05
Millar       -6.99
HernandezL   -8.70
Bynum        -9.57
HernandezR   -9.58
Payton       -10.07
Mora         -20.35

So there it is, our midseason estimate of player value, in terms of runs above or below average.

Melvin Mora has been, by far, the worst player on the team, in terms of cumulative value. While folks talk about the need to upgrade SS (total of about -24), the situation is almost as bad at 3B with Mora accounting for a -20 at the hot corner. That will happen when you play a power position and don't provide offense or defense to the team.

Another interesting observation is that after adding defense and our positional adjustment to the equation Luke Scott moves to the negative side while Adam Jones moves to the positive side. I think this is one of the areas where crunching the numbers is really instructive. It's sometimes hard for folks to look past a difference of over .100 points of OPS that exists between Scott and Jones, even if those people are fully aware that Jones plays CF very well and Scott plays LF mostly adequately. It should also be noted that Scott has been platooned somewhat with Jay Payton and also plays DH occasionally, leaving him far behind Jones in PA as well as innings in the field.

Did we learn anything here? I'd like to think we did, but if not, there are plenty of pretty numbers to look at. Stay tuned for more updates on this. I'm planning to at least do a final results post when the season is over.

Markakis, Year 3

2008-07-16T13:56:00.000-07:00

Even as the Orioles slip further away from the elusive .500 mark, the season still has its small pleasures. Chief among them is watching the growth of Nick Markakis into a legitimate star caliber player. Now in his third season, Markakis has shown improvement in many areas of his game.

First let's look at the basic Markakis lines over the past two seasons. In 2007, Markakis went for a .300/.362/.485 line (121 OPS+) before bumping that up to .299/.401/.492 (139 OPS+). What has been impressive is that not only have Markakis' raw rate stats shown a jump, they have done so in as the run environment has become more receptive to pitchers in the AL this season. AL scoring has dropped by about 0.27 runs - a not insignificant drop - relative to pre-All Star Break levels from 2007.

By Batting Runs (a linear weights method), Markakis rates as +21.5 runs above average, as compared to +19.5 RAA last season, even though he has 300 fewer PA this season. That is important because lwts is a counting stat that, all things equal, accumulates as playing time accumulates.

The most striking difference in Markakis rate stat line is the jump in OBP, especially considering that his AVG has been nearly identical. His BB% (measured per PA) has jumped from 8.7% to 14.3%, an enormous jump, and good for 18th in all of baseball, 9th in the AL. Markakis has also increased his K% (20.3%), which is a concern, but his strikeout rate is not especially concerning. Among the top 20 in BB%, he ranks 10th in BB/K ratio at 0.80, a well above average ratio.

The rise in strikeouts might ordinarily forecast a drop in AVG as less balls in play mean less opportunities for hits. But what Markakis has done in conjunction with the increase in BB and K is to hit more line drives. His LD% has skyrocketed to 22.9%, which fits in well with his BABIP of .346 (a quick "rule of thumb" is that BABIP = LD% + .120). Markakis is becoming a bit more selective at the plate (swinging at just ~41% of pitches this season as compared to ~45% last season) and has simultaneously hit the ball harder when he does swing.

Markakis' defensive reputation has been that of a Gold Glove caliber RF for some time, at least among Orioles fans, but the numbers did not agree. At least not the RZR numbers of The Hardball Times, which rated him a very poor 16th out of 20 qualifying RF last season (although he did have an excellent 45 OOZ plays). This year those numbers peg him as being 5th of 19th in RZR as well as tied for 4th in OOZ plays, a strong case for being named the best defensive RF in the AL. Of course, we should take note of the small sample size involved in both seasons (as fielding statistics, even the best, have more year to year noise than do hitting statistics), and it may be correct to conclude that Markakis deserves to be ranked as just slightly above average in the field.

It has been interesting to see the strides that Markakis has taken this season, although it is probably best to be somewhat cautious while seeing how he finishes the season. The next step will be to add more power, although even if he just stays to his first half pace, he will end up with about 25 HR and 45 2B, very strong totals when combined with a .400 OBP. Here's to hoping

Erik Bedard's Future

2007-11-10T09:56:00.000-08:00

Perhaps the biggest question mark of the offseason for the Orioles is what to do with ace starter Erik Bedard. Any team would like to have Erik Bedard start at the front of their rotation after last season. He had his breakout campaign, and on a inning-by-inning basis he was probably the best pitcher in the American League.

But the decision to keep him is not an easy one. He will be a free agent after 2009, meaning the Orioles have him under their control for only two more seasons - and at least next season looks to be another season far removed from contention. While his production was stellar last season, it may represent a high water mark. Of course not reaching last year's heights isn't a damning indictment, but at 29 and having never thrown 200 innings in a season, there are still question marks surrounding Bedard.

If you try to decipher what Andy MacPhail has said in recent weeks, it seems that resigning Bedard would be the first option. A fair contract would likely be in the 4 year, $60M range.
And that's at the very upper limit. Break that down as $20M for the last two arbitration years (Carlos Zambrano pocketed $18.9M) and $20M to buy out each of his first two seasons of free agency. And that's assuming health and consistency as a top 5 pitcher in the AL. Something like 4/$50M might be more in line with Bedard's value, even though he likely wouldn't sign for that amount.

The more attractive option might be to trade Bedard for a package of three premium prospects, if indeed someone is willing to offer that in a winter where the free agent market is devoid of quality pitching. Any contract to Bedard will pay a premium to him based on having been signed when his value is highest. Such a contract will put almost all of the risk on the Orioles, something that should be cause for concern. Either course of action is defensible, but for the first time, I find myself leaning towards raking in multiple young players in return for Bedard.

As we move into November...

2007-10-29T16:10:00.000-07:00

*Kurt Birkins was selected by the Devil Rays off of waivers. It's not a big loss for the organization, although with the clear lack of quality bullpen options available this season, it might not have been the best move to give away a potentially helpful arm. Pitching as a starter in Norfolk, Birkins struck out almost a batter an inning. He got hit hard in a couple starts in Baltimore, but that's clearly not where his future is, if he has one. He managed to strike out 27 in 30.1 innings as a reliever in Baltimore, but his numbers were superficially inflated by poor luck on balls in play. Birkins will never be a dominant reliever, but he probably has a future in the age of the seven man bullpen.

*Lots of shuffling on the 40 man roster in recent weeks. Fredy Deza was added. He pitched in relief and as a starter this year with Bowie, putting up a 4.43 ERA. At 25 and having never made it past the Eastern League, his future is limited at best.

Reliever Bob McCrory was also added to the 40 man roster. He's 25 and made what was essentially his full season debut, splitting time between Frederick and Bowie and striking out a man an inning. He worked almost exclusively as a ninth inning man (finishing 37 games in 44 appearances) and performed well, but his walk totals still suggest some unresolved command issues. The feeling seems to be that he has a real shot to contribute to the bullpen in 2008 in some capacity. There could be worse solutions.

Val Majewski lost his place on the 40 man, finally extinguishing any faint hopes of prospectdom that he still had. Majewski once seemed destined to have some role in the big leagues, but after missing all of 2005 to injury, he completely lost any power he once had, leaving him with a bat that doesn't play in the corner outfield, even as a reserve.

Adam Stern is gone too. He didn't hit again this year in AAA, but the Javy Lopez trade was still a net positive for the Orioles. Sayanora to Elder Torres. At least Brandon Fahey and Luis Hernandez augment their lack of hitting skill by playing SS rather than 2B.

*The Orioles still don't have a full coaching staff. Roch says that the First Base coaching job is down to Chris Hoiles and some guy named Mo. If we could only be so lucky as to see the return of Chris Hoiles to an Orioles uniform.

*The Red Sox win again! Fuck them!
t is
*Alex Rodriguez is officially a free agent after opting out of his contract yesterday. And there sure seems to be some acrimony between Rodriguez and the Yankees suggesting he will play elsewhere next season. No surprise there. I'll guess that the end result is 8 years for a quarter of a billion dollars.

Offseason Moves So Far

2007-10-18T12:17:00.000-07:00

The Orioles moved quickly to fill the vacancy at pitching coach by hiring former Marlins' PC Russ Kranitz. He comes in having guided a very young 2006 Marlins' staff to an excellent season which was enough for Baseball America to name him their Major League Coach of the Year. I'll reserve optimism on this one given the failures of two high profile pitching gurus (Leo Mazzone and Ray Miller) in recent years. Still, on the surface of it, it seems that the Orioles made about as good a hire as could be expected.

As could be expected, the team has already parted ways with some deadweight as Jaret Wright, Rob Bell, Victor Santos, and Victor Zambrano have all been granted free agency after fulfilling their role as sub-replacement level pitchers on last year's staff. Catcher JR House was also released. That one isn't surprising, although it still hurts that the Orioles continue to ignore the concept of freely available talent.

And since no round of transactions can be completed without the Orioles doing business with the Cubs, the club claimed Cubbies reliever Roberto Novoa off of waivers. He missed all of this season with an injury after adequate performances for the Tigers and Cubs from 2004 to 2006. He did strike out more than a batter per inning in about 45 innings of relief work for the Cubs in 2005, so he might be a nice power arm to have in the organization. If nothing else, this hopefully signals that the Orioles are looking to solidify the bullpen through low-cost acquisitions rather than multi-year contracts. The team has done that in the past, though one would hope that the new front office is better equipped to separate possible contributors from junk.

Leo Mazzone Fired

2007-10-13T20:16:00.000-07:00

Leo Mazzone, Orioles pitching coach and assumed pitching genius, was fired by the team last week after two years in charge of the team's staff.

In terms of raw numbers, Mazzone failed as a pitching coaching here in the Charm City. After so many great staffs working under Bobby Cox with the Braves, Mazzone came back to his home state to work with long-time friend and manager Sam Perlozzo as the Orioles' Pitching Coach, succeeding Ray Miller in 2006. Mazzone's first O's staff in 2006 finished with a 5.35 ERA (ERA+ of 84), bad enough to finish 13th in the 14 team American League. This year's team improved to a 5.19 ERA (86 ERA+), but still did no better than 13th in the AL.

2006 was written off by many, including myself, as an adjustment period for Mazzone as well as the staff. 2007, if was hoped, was the year that the vaunted Mazzone Effect came to bear on the team's results. But it was not to be, at least superficially.

What isn't shown in the numbers is that the staff put together an outstanding (or at least very good) 4.13 ERA through the end of July. Erik Bedard had fully realized his potential and might have been the best pitcher in the AL. Former top prospect Jeremy Guthrie had been outstanding in what was a classic case of a pitcher turning it around under Mazzone's tutelage (ignoring cause and effect for a moment). The bullpen was solid, even with Danys Baez combusting from the start.

But then things fell apart. Bedard and Guthrie were both injured in the last two months. The formerly nifty Brian Burres imploded upon being sent to the bullpen. Steve Trachsel, who had inexplicably defied his peripherals all season, was traded to the Cubs. Chris Ray was lost for the year. Danys Baez never improved back to previous seasons' form.

And the Orioles kept plowing through arms in trying to find a working combination. Prospects James Hoey, Garrett Olson, and Radhames Liz flopped upon extended auditions in the bigs. Sub-replacement level veterans like Paul Shuey and Rob Bell had places in the bullpen for what seemed like years. And by September the Orioles were giving starts to the likes of Jon Leicester, Kurt Birkins, and the Brothers Victor (Santos and Zambrano).

However, simply blaming the talent collection is somewhat insufficient. The job of the coaches is to improve the talent. It's clear that some of the poor performance was the result of poor talent evaluation by the front office as well as a desperation to find warm bodies and functioning arms as well as plain old bad luck. But Mazzone's deft touch didn't help highly rated Orioles prospects like Olson or Hoey adjust to the majors. Daniel Cabrera, a centerpiece of the team's youth movement on the pitching staff, regressed strongly in 2007, posting perhaps his worst season yet.

In the end, the last two years are not a damning statement against Mazzone by any stretch, though it has certainly shown that enough credit for the Atlanta staffs has not been given to the manager/general manager team of Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz. When Mazzone's old Atlanta reclamation projects (Jaret Wright, Russ Ortiz, Jim Brower), results were ugly.

The Orioles are not likely to find a better pitching coach, but at the same time, the staff is unlikely to get appreciably worse next season. Dave Trembley will have significant input on his coaching staff, one which won't include Mazzone or Tom Treblehorn. It's hard to be excited about seeing the most ballyhooed coach in recent baseball history leave the bench, but perhaps it won't be so bad after all. We'll find out soon enough.

Orioles Defense 2007

2007-10-04T12:17:00.000-07:00

Listed below are the rankings for every Orioles defender in the IF and OF based on translations from Justin Inaz. It's based on Hardball Times' RZR (Revised Zone Rating) data. Learn more about Inaz' procedure for generating these numbers on his site.

The basic idea is that a zone rating (percentage of balls made into outs within a fielders' zone of responsibility) is converted into the number of runs a player saves or concedes relative to a league average defender. Plays made out of zone (OOZ) are also factored in as a positive for defenders. The rule of thumb is that ten runs is equal to about one win. Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies (+27.6 runs) wins about three more games than the average SS with his glove. On the flip side, Derek Jeter (-37.1 runs) gives up four wins or thereabouts with his glove relative to an average player.

Standard disclaimers about sample size and the imperfect nature of defensive stats apply as always.

1B - Moore (-0.7), Gomez (-1.1), Huff (-3.1), Millar (-4.2)

Millar has something of a reputation as an underrated defender - sure handed but lacking in range. That was the case this season, but Millar's range was worse than some had imagined. Huff, on the other hand, was as bad as advertised. With regular work at 1B, he would have rated among the very worst in the majors.

2B - Roberts (+4.1), Fahey (+3.3), Gomez (-0.1), Bynum (-0.4), Luis Hernandez (-0.7)

The Orioles had solid middle infield defense on the season. Roberts rates as a solidly above average defender, ranking between Robinson Cano and Mark Grudzielanek. Brandon Fahey is either a Gold Glover at second or a small sample size fluke. He's 15th in the majors among keystone fielders despite playing a mere 31 innings at the position. That pace is certainly not sustainable going forward, but there is little doubt that Fahey has the skills to rank among the best in the league if he played the position regularly.

SS - Tejada (+4.8), Luis Hernandez (+4.1), Gomez (+2.2), Fahey (+1.4), Bynum (+0.4).

Imagine that. The much maligned (defensively, at least) Miguel Tejada rates as a comfortably above average defender. The numbers confirm that Luis Hernandez is better; he contributed nearly as much defensively in fraction of the innings. It's entirely possible that the system is overrating Tejada. As I posted last week, the BP fielding stats (which aren't PBP based) show a gigantic gap between the below-average Tejada and the well above-average Hernandez. Still, these numbers should be very interesting to those in the Front Office wanting to move Tejada to another position.

3B - Mora (+2.8), Moore (-1.8), Gomez (-2.6), Huff (-3.9)

Mora rates as above average. That generally jibes with perception, at least this year. On the left side of the infield, Mora was the one catching heat for his defense in 2006. Now Tejada has assumed that role. Scott Moore shows why he was regarded as a weak defender during his time in the minors. Huff continues to be terrible regardless of the position.

LF - Bynum (+1.9), Fahey (+0.7), Millar (0.0), Knott (-0.1), Redman (-0.4), Gibbons (-1.0), Payton (-9.0)

When your two main LF are below replacement level with the bat and below average with the glove, that isn't a good situation. Gibbons was surprisingly good, though still below average. Payton was atrocious and didn't live up to his reputation as a plus glove.

CF - Payton (+1.0), Patterson (-1.3), Bynum (-3.0), Redman (-7.9)

Corey Patterson got no love this year, going from an Gold Glove defender to one that was slightly below average. Patterson has all the physical tools in addition to being more than competent in terms of taking routes to the ball. The lack of out of zone (OOZ) plays made by Patterson stands out as one reason for his low rating.

RF - Gibbons (-0.2), Payton (-1.0), Markakis (-12.6)

It's believable that Miguel Tejada was an above average SS this season. It's believable that Corey Patterson might have had a down year and rated as a below average fielder in center. But Nick Markakis as one of the worst RF in the game? No way, right?

Markakis was ahead of only a select few - Guillen, Cuddyer, Guerrero, Griffey, Abreu, and Dye. It's possible that the high scoreboard in RF at Camden Yards suppressed his numbers beneath what they should have been. Balls of off the scoreboard count as plays in the zone that weren't made, despite the fact that there was no chance they could be turned into outs. It's similar to the Green Monster taking Manny Ramirez from a run of the mill atrocious fielder to ten runs worse than anyone else in the majors, albeit on a smaller scale.

It wasn't a great year for the defense, if you believe these numbers. Mora, Roberts, and Tejada were above average, but the other four positions ranked. It is good that MacPhail seems likely to emphasize defense though he needs to find the proper balance between defensive and offensive considerations.

And so it ends...

2007-10-01T12:51:00.000-07:00

...at 69-93. For the tenth straight season the Orioles lost more than they won. For the ninth time in the last decade, the club finished in fourth place in the five team AL East. And for the third straight season the team lost more games than they had won the previous season.

The Orioles had a total payroll of $93.554M according to USA Today, good for tenth highest in the majors. Only four of the top ten teams in total payroll went to the playoffs, but aside from the Orioles and the White Sox (72-90), every one of them finished with more wins than losses. Indeed, a payroll of nearly four times that of divisional rival Tampa Bay scored the Orioles a mere three additional wins.

The birds finished tenth in the AL in runs scored with 756 while finishing 9th in OPS+ at 97. The pitching staff and defense did little better, finishing 13th in ERA (5.19) as well as runs allowed (868). The Orioles scored fewer runs and gave up fewer runs, but that was mostly the effects of scoring going down across the league. While Baltimore's OPS+ stayed the same as in 2006, the team's ERA+ managed to drop from 86 to an even more terrible 84.

While there were bright spots, 2007 was just another year that saw Baltimore sink further and further into baseball irrelevance. The new Man in Charge, Andy MacPhail, does seem to realize that changes - real, sweeping changes - need to me made for this ballclub to become competitive once again. He insists that he hasn't finalized a plan for this offseason, so we'll check back once the moves start being made to see what MacPhail is going to do for the club.

#18 David Hernandez

2007-09-27T18:02:00.000-07:00

When evaluating a young pitcher, or really any pitcher, the one question that often comes up is "does he miss bats?" Does the pitcher strike hitters out or does he rely on his defense to generate outs? David Hernandez is a pitcher that will strike batters out. In his final regular season start, Hernandez struck out an absurd 18 Winston-Salem batters and on the season he fanned 168 batters in 145.1 innings over 27 starts.

Hernandez, 22, was taken in the 2005 17th round out of Consumnes River JC in Sacramento and has put up big K numbers ever since, striking out over a batter per inning in Aberdeen in his pro debut in 2005 before doing the same last season at Delmarva. He improved quite a bit on his already lofty totals, fanning 14 more batters in just 1/3 of an inning more.

Hernandez has control problems, though perhaps not quite as acute as Radhames Liz or others in the system. His pro BB/9 rate is a high but not unmanageable 3.66, but he also has 34 wild pitches and has hit 21 batters in the past two seasons. Add that to a fly ball tendency (16 HR allowed) and a 4.95 ERA (skewed by some lousy luck on balls in play) and it's easy to see the reason for tempered enthusiasm. Even so, you'd have to think that a guy who can record so many outs without the use of his defense will have a role in the majors somewhere.

#19 Zach Britton

2007-09-26T08:02:00.000-07:00

Britton did nothing special in his pro debut at Bluefield last season, but he did enough at Aberdeen in 2007 to make himself interesting. The one aspect of his game that stands out is that he gets hitters to beat the ball into the ground. Britton gave up just one homer in Aberdeen this season over 15 starts (63.2 IP). Lefties who can get ground balls have a future. The ones that have mediocre strikeout numbers and haven't reached full season ball need more time to develop.

Tejada and Changing Positions

2007-09-19T18:34:00.000-07:00

There has been increasing speculation around the Orioles that if Miguel Tejada is on the team next season, it will be at another position, possibly 3B. Jeff Zrebiec wrote an illuminating article in The Sun about the issue yesterday.

The saying is that where there's smoke, there's fire. That might not be the case here, but it's almost undoubtedly true that the some of the folks running the club can envision a scenario where Luis Hernandez takes over as the everyday SS next season. If that's the case, it's very disturbing whether or not Hernandez eventually gets the job or not.

The idea that Hernandez is a viable SS candidate at this point rejects nearly every accepted notion about the value of defense relative to offense, the tradeoffs between the two, and the utility of minor league performance as a projection for major league performance. Hernandez put together an abysmal .244/.276/.312 season at the plate for Bowie and Norfolk in 2007. Even if he experienced no drop off at all in offensive production after a move to the majors, no amount of defensive acumen, even relative to the worst defending SS in the majors (not Tejada), would make up for a .588 OPS.

Baseball Prospectus' Rate stat marks Hernandez as a +9 above average defender and Tejada as a -8 defender. Keep in mind the sample size issues present not only for Hernandez but Tejada as well. There is some inherent error in these numbers for a variety of reasons, but it confirms the notion that Hernandez has been better - much better - defensively than Tejada in 2007.

Let's look at this in terms of winning games. To this end, we'll use WARP as an indicator of a player's contribution towards winning. It's far from a perfect metric, but it can give us a rough idea of the relative value of a player.

Hernandez has accumulated 0.3 WARP in 120 innings of play this year. Projecting that out to 150 full games (about 1350 innings), we can estimate that Hernandez is roughly 3.4 win player. That's not great, but it's certainly a healthy contribution you'd expect from an average player like Melvin Mora or Kevin Millar.

Tejada has played 1002.7 innings this season and totaled 3.5 WARP. Projecting that figure over 150 full games, we see that Tejada projects to about 4.7 WARP for a full season. That means that moving Tejada from SS in favor of Hernandez results in a net loss of about one win over the course of the season, probably a bit more.

But there's a fallacy here. As we project these numbers out to a full season and to next season, we assume that Hernandez can repeat his current .705 major league OPS. We assume that Miguel Tejada will not improve on his .801 OPS, his worst since 1999. And finally we assume that Tejada won't even approach the defensive prowess he exhibited in his first three seasons as an Oriole when he ranged from a +2 to a +14 defender.

If Hernandez regresses back to his minor league offensive numbers, which he almost certainly will, we see an even bigger gap between him and Tejada. If Tejada manages to play midway between where he was in 2006 (when he had an 8.2 WARP) and where he has so far this season, the gap widens still more. What might only be a one win gap under the assumptions that each of the two is playing to their true talent level can easily expand to a four win gap.

There are other considerations. Moving Tejada to 3B is an offensive upgrade over Melvin Mora, although Mora is rated as a +4 defender there this season and it isn't clear that Tejada would field that well after moving to a new position. On the whole, Tejada is a likely upgrade over Mora while Mora would be an upgrade over Jay Payton and Jay Gibbons, assuming he were to be moved to LF.

It would seem that these moves have the chance to be a net zero in terms of wins, although that seems close to a best case scenario. It is quite probable that playing Luis Hernandez as the everyday SS results in a loss of wins. In either scenario, the team is losing several wins on the table by moving Tejada off of SS that must be recouped elsewhere. And at 65-87, it should be quite clear that upgrades must be made. Simply breaking even is not a viable option at all.

What's next for Daniel Cabrera?

2007-09-17T15:00:00.000-07:00

I've been a Daniel Cabrera defender for quite a while now. Not one of those folks who still compares him to Randy Johnson and talks wistfully of his upside. No, I've been sure for some time that Cabrera was never going to reach those wild expectations. But he's a guy who is still three years away from free agency after this year. Given the money spent on mediocre starters in the free agent market, if Cabrera can put up his customary 4.50-5.00 ERA, he has value. With a bit of improvement, he becomes an incredibly valuable commodity.

But with tonight's latest debacle against the Yankees, Cabrera drops to 9-17 with a 5.51 ERA. He has given up 104 walks and 25 homers on the season. That ERA puts him in a tie for 36th in the AL among qualifying starters ahead of only Jose Contreras. His 4.6 BB/G ranks him dead last among qualifiers despite a radical improvement in that area this season. He has a 5.12 FIP ERA - that also puts him dead last in the league. And if you care about more traditional stats, his 17 losses is also - you guessed it - dead last in the AL.

Cabrera still has problems with walks, and what's worse, he isn't striking out as many batters and he's getting hit harder. While he was certainly never dominant, he did show flashes of dominance, but those have become much harder to come by this season. At this point it's hard to consider him to even be an acceptable 5th starter.

Even with any residual perceived "upside" or "potential", Cabrera's complete lack of progress at the major league level makes his trade value fairly close to nonexistent. A role in the bullpen could help refine his mechanics and shave down the walks through more frequent usage while allowing Cabrera to throw at max effort for short periods rather than pacing himself for 110 pitches. Assuming that Hayden Penn and Garrett Olson are ready for primetime (a big assumption perhaps), Cabrera's optimal role might be in the bullpen. However, unless he morphs into the relief ace the team needs, it would seem to be a waste to trade 210 innings of a mediocre Cabrera for 70 innings of a slightly improved Cabrera.

In a sense this discussion is probably pointless. Cabrera, along with Erik Bedard, Adam Loewen, and Jeremy Guthrie would seem to be near-locks for the team's Opening Day Rotation. But with Penn, Olson, and Liz in the pipeline behind him, he may need to earn the rotation slot. And that's for the best since Cabrera is a 5th starter at this point.

#20 Brad Bergesen

2007-09-17T06:20:00.000-07:00

Brad Bergesen was the Orioles' 4th round pick (#109 overall) in the 2004 amateur draft. He was their third pick in that draft behind P Wade Townsend and OF Jeff Fiorentino. The then-18-year-old Bergesen was signed out of Foothill HS in Pleasanton for the tidy sum of $310k and would begin his pro career later that season with Bluefield of the Appalachian League.

Bergesen made it to Aberdeen in 2005, and although his performance record was undistinguished that season, he made his way to Delmarva to begin the 2006 season, an impressive feat for a 20 year old starting pitcher. Bergesen's record with the Shorebirds was that of a finesse pitcher - just 49 k's with 97 hits in 86 innings. But what made Bergesen interesting was the mere 10 walks he allowed on the season, good for a tidy 4.9 K/BB.

Bergesen isn't a finesse pitcher, though. His "stuff" is solid and despite the lack of strikeouts his accomplishments aren't the result of smoke and mirrors or feasting on younger competition. His season at Delmarva was solid, but it wasn't even good enough to merit a mention by prospect guru John Sickels in his list of top Orioles' farmhands.

Returning to Delmarva for the start of the 2007 season, he continued his success with a 73/17 K:BB in almost 100 innings of work. His ERA was an outstanding 2.19 after 15 starts, and that was good enough to get him promoted to Frederick for a shot in their rotation. Bergesen floundered somewhat in the more advanced Carolina League, posting a 5.75 ERA in 10 starts, although with a very solid 35/9 K:BB and a near total lack of luck (.374 BABIP) were looming beneath the surface.

One of the things that made Bergesen an interesting prospect after this season was that he induced quite a few more balls on the ground this season, going from a 1.17 G/F in 2006 to a scintillating 2.14 ratio in 2007, a tendency that led to a minuscule 7 HR in 150.2 innings pitched. The lack of strikeouts is concerning, but when mitigated by extreme control and the ability to avoid homers and to keep the ball on the ground, it's not a deal breaker. It should be noted that in addition to his low walk totals, Bergesen hit 14 batters on the season.

Bergesen will likely start next season as part of the Frederick rotation. It will be a crucial year for him to prove that he is a legitimate name to remember in the future rather than a borderline prospect in the vein of Jim Johnson.

first in a series of Prospect Profiles

Orioles Top Twenty

2007-09-17T03:12:00.000-07:00

1. Matt Wieters
2. Billy Rowell
3. Garrett Olson
4. Nolan Reimold
5. Brandon Erbe
6. Scott Moore
7. Radhames Liz
8. Brandon Snyder
9. James Hoey
10. Chorye Spoone
11. Pedro Beato
12. Jake Arrieta
13. Brandon Tripp
14. Christopher Vinyard
15. Timothy Bascom
16. Jeff Fiorentino
17. Blake Davis
18. David Hernandez
19. Zach Britton
20. Brad Bergesen

Keys Win

2007-09-15T16:10:00.000-07:00

Of the nine teams in the Orioles' organization, the only one to make the playoffs was the High-A Frederick Keys of the Carolina League. Even the Keys limped into the playoffs, finishing only 64-74 on the season. Frederick won the North Division in the first half with a record of 32-37. That same record in the second half was good enough for only third in the four team division.

The Keys - led by a rotation that included Chorye Spoone, David Hernandez, Jason Berken and Brandon Erbe - finished 7th in the 8 team Carolina League in both runs scored and runs allowed on the year. They were outscored by a whopping 154 runs in their 138 games. To say they were an underdog in the playoffs would probably have been an understatement.

But anything can happen in a short series. We all know that. Facing the Wilmington Blue Rocks, a Royals affiliate in the best-of-3 North Division playoffs, the Keys won back to back games, 9-2 and 3-1 to take the series in two straight. After pounding out 17 hits and getting 7 strong innings from starter Brad Bergesen in game 1, the Keys got a tremendous start from rising star Chorye Spoone in the clincher, a complete game one hitter that featured 9 strikeouts from Spoone. The no-hitter was not spoiled until the 9th inning on a two out homerun. But Spoone was not yet done with his postseason heroics.

Next up were the Salem Avalanche of the Astros' organization in a best-of-five series. The Keys took the first game in a tight one, riding another seven inning pitching performance, this time from David Hernandez, to a tough 3-2 win. Salem won the next game 8-4, but Frederick retook the series with a 6-4 win on the road.

The Keys had their ace Spoone back on the hill for the possible series clinching win. Once again Spoone took a shutout into the ninth, leading 5-0. Spoone failed once again to get the shutout, giving up a run on three hits to the Avalanche in the ninth. But more importantly, Spoone suceeded in closing out the win. The single run was accompanied by a whopping 11 hits, but Spoone pitched well enough to strike out 8 and won a well deserved series MVP award.

Congratulations to the Frederick Keys for their second Mills Cup win in three years. Look for Spoone, Erbe, and a few others in the upcoming Orioles Top 20 prospects list.

Baez to have Tommy John?

2007-09-15T15:47:00.000-07:00

Maybe, or so says Roch Kubatko in his blog.

If Baez does need to have TJ surgery, he'd almost certainly be out for 2008 and the Orioles would no longer have to deal with his sub-replacement level 6.44 ERA. The team has always been unable to recognize a sunk cost when they see it so there was little chance they would simply release Baez if he continued to pitch to his current level. And even in a trade with the Orioles taking on a significant portion of the money owed to Baez, there most likely would not be a line forming to acquire his services for 2008 and 2009.

That being said, Baez has only faced 233 batters this year, a relatively small number on which to judge a pitcher (or any player). If Baez could come back next season and approximate his 4.53 ERA from 2006, he'd have some value, even if that value was far below what he will be paid. A sub-0ptimal solution is sometimes a necessary evil given that Rob Bell or Victor Santos are the types of alternatives the team might be inclined to audition.

In either case, the team clearly needs to upgrade the bullpen for next season. Although Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker have both been perfectly acceptable this season, Andy MacPhail hopefully realizes the folly of throwing big money at the problem. And while scrap heap solutions can work, it's much better to acquire some young flamethrowers with big arms (Fernando Cabrera) rather than old guys long past their usefulness (Paul Shuey, Rob Bell).

Ten Straight

2007-09-12T15:58:00.000-07:00

The Orioles lost their 82nd game of the season this week, which is significant for no other reason than the fact that it clinches another losing season. For those who have lost track, this is the tenth straight season that the Orioles have failed to as much as break even at 81-81.

It's lonely at the bottom, but the Orioles have some company. The inept Devil Rays are also in the midst of ten straight losing seasons, precisely the number of seasons they've been in existence. And sadly enough, Tampa Bay hasn't even mustered a season better than their 70-91 campaign in 2004. The Pirates have had 14 straight losing seasons dating back to when Barry Bonds left the team. And if you expand the category just a bit, the Brewers have had 14 straight years of finishing at or below .500, though that's likely to end after this season.

It's not unexpected of course. The Orioles have been a deplorable 3-16 dating back to the 30-3 defeat against the Rangers. The pitching staff has fallen apart, and what's left of it seems almost universally incapable of recording an out.

Nick Markakis and Miguel Tejada have come on strong over the past two months, and Kevin Millar continues a solid season, but the rest of the offense has remained lethargic, with even Brian Roberts seeing his performance collapse.

At this point in the season, it's pointless to bemoan Paul Bako playing more than JR House or Jon Knott being DFA. Changes need to be made in the offseason - that much is clear. Hopefully Andy MacPhail will finally be the man to enact the necessary changes to bring back the proud tradition of Baltimore Baseball.

Trembley Interview

2007-09-10T21:52:00.000-07:00

Some interesting notes in a Baseball Prospectus interview with Dave Trembley (subscription required). A few revealing answers:

BP: Weaver’s reputation included playing for the three-run homer. Do you share a similar philosophy?

DT: I think you have to adapt, and adjust, your philosophy and approach to the personnel that you have. I’ve always been a believer in baseball fundamentals, and to me that’s a repetition of basic baseball skills. It’s pitching, defense and timely hitting. I think you win more games, or at least have the opportunity to win more games, if those things are in place. Obviously, the three-run home run makes it a lot easier, but if you don’t have pitching and defense, a three-run home run doesn’t mean a hill of beans.

Andy MacPhail was in the booth on Saturday and said that the game was "80% pitching". He might have been exaggerating for effect, but given what we've heard from he and Trembley it's clear that pitching and defense is going to be an organizational mantra. And that's fine to an extent.

But the problem seems to be that the men in charge haven't indicated that they appreciate the tradeoffs between offense and defense. The three run home run doesn't mean a lot without the pitching - see Tampa Bay. But there seems to be no recognition that the pitching and defense is no good if the lineup scrapes just to score four runs every night. In order to field a winning team there should be a mix of all three components rather than the thought that any offense generated is a nice bonus for the team.

It's fine to trade some hitting for good fielding up the middle (or anywhere that it adds value), but that doesn't make Luis Hernandez or Brandon Fahey viable options for an MLB roster. It doesn't mean that the team needs to move Miguel Tejada to a less valuable defensive position, and it doesn't mean that a "defensive" catcher like Paul Bako or Alberto Castillo should be on the roster getting at-bats over a JR House.

BP: What is your approach to the use of statistics and statistical analysis?

DT: Well, it’s gotten a lot more sophisticated since I first started. I like to look at match-ups, right/left, and situational things. I think it’s a tool, and I think that a lot of the services that provide this information have some good things, but it’s not a sole basis for making decisions. I think the game is still played between the white lines, and there are a lot of decisions that are made by your gut, not by what you see on paper.

I might be reading into this what I want to see, but this doesn't sound like a man who is going to look at the statistical analysis available to him? Obviously there are going to be situations that can't be neatly summed up by the statistics, but is going with your gut the better option? Is it too much to ask that a manager actually makes decisions by some analytical process rather than the tried and true "gut method"?

It's infuriating that not only will people not take to heart the knowledge gained through statistical analysis, but they'll also say things like "the game is played between the lines". Of course it is. And the statistical record analyzes the things that occur between those lines.

I actually like Trembley a lot so far, although I liked Perlozzo too at the beginning. I don't want to be too hard on him because of one interview, but I do hope he takes to heart the analytical side of baseball.

Guthrie Done for the Year

2007-09-10T18:26:00.001-07:00

Just a few days after Erik Bedard was shut down for the season with a strained oblique, Jeremy Guthrie left yesterday's game with the same injury. And now he's out for the season.

Guthrie was the surprise of the season, pitching like a Cy Young candidate for a few months after being picked up off of waivers in the offseason from the Indians before fading down the stretch. Guthrie's season was strikingly similar to that of Rodrigo Lopez, who posted a 3.57 ERA as a 26 year old rookie in 2002 after being picked up from the Mexican League.

Guthrie got by early in the season with a Maddux-like walk rate and an extremely low BABIP. Once those two measures regressed, and combined with a startling 1.2 HR/9 on the year, Guthrie began to pitch more towards preseason expectations. Guthrie has great stuff and put up solid numbers this season so it makes sense to pencil him as a back of the rotation starter next season despite the warning signs of a possible collapse.

So now the rotation is in shambles with Rob Bell (he of the 7.75 ERA) and newly acquired Victor Santos starting in the upcoming series against the Angels. Talk about depressing. It's tough to find reasons to watch a team with what has become, almost completely, a sub-replacement level pitching staff. How did the pitching staff crumble so quickly? Garrett Olson will also miss at least one turn and Birkins is back in the pen so I suppose the rotation is currently Cabrera, Bell, Santos, Leicester, and Liz. Or something. Yikes.

Nick Markakis continues his torrid second half (.325/.401/.549). I'm going to look at his season a little bit more in depth after the year is over. He's the biggest reason to keep watching at this point. Legitimate hope for the future is always nice.

Pedro Alvarez Sweepstakes

2007-09-09T12:00:00.000-07:00

So named for the presumptive first pick in next season's draft (depending on who you ask) Here are the leaders as of the conclusion of last night's games. Let's Go Orioles!

;<
TBD     59-83     --
FLA     61-81     2
CHW     61-81     2
BAL     61-80     2.5
KCR     62-79     3.5
WAS     63-79     4

Stay tuned as the Orioles try to make up a 2.5 game deficit with just 21 games left. Feel the Magic.

Jon Knott DFA; O's acquire two

2007-09-09T11:46:00.000-07:00

The Orioles picked up Victor Santos from the Reds to help in their desperate search of pitching. Santos is really not a good pitcher at all. He's 30 and has a 5.14 ERA in 588 career innings including a 5.14 ERA in 32 relief appearances (49 innings) this season. Santos will start on Tuesday Night.

To make room for him on the 40 man roster, the club officially ended the Jon Knott Era in Baltimore. Knott hit .250/.356/.451 with 13 HR in 288 AB in class AAA Norfolk. The handwriting had been on the wall for a while in regard to Knott, no more clear than when he didn't even get called up after rosters expanded last week. It's extremely disappointing that Knott wasn't even given a shot with Payton/Gibbons manning LF for most of the season, but such is the way of the Orioles.

The Orioles also shut down Erik Bedard for the season, putting him on the 60 Day Disabled List. To add depth, the Orioles picked up Victor Zambrano, whose biggest career achievement was being traded for Scott Kazmir. Zambrano had brief stints with the Mets and Blue Jays over the past two seasons and was horrible. He also pitched to an ERA over 5.50 in class AAA with Syracuse and Indianapolis, naturally making him a desirable acquisition for the Orioles.

Hayden Penn has pitched well in Norfolk so far (20/5 K/BB in 21 IP) and would seemingly need to get some more work after missing a large part of the season with an injury, but the Orioles have decided against bringing him up even with the need for pitching. It would be nice to allow the 22 year old to ease his way back into the majors with some low-pressure innings out of the bullpen this month, but that appears not to be in the plans.

Minor League Leaders

2007-09-08T11:16:00.000-07:00

Thanks to the awesome new minor league site on baseball-reference.com, it's easy to look at minor league numbers (going back to 1992) in a number of different ways. I decided to look at the Orioles' Minor League leaders for 2007. This isn't a list of some of the best prospects. It's a lot of unfamiliar names that are old for their level, but it's still fun to look at the leaders.

AVG (min. 200 AB)

Omar Casamayor (DSL) - .344

OBP (min. 200 AB)

Matthew Angle (ABD) - .421

SLG (min. 200 AB)

Luis Antonio Jimenez (BOW) - .591

OPS (min. 200 AB)

Luis Antonio Jimenez (BOW) - .990

HR

Luis Antonio Jimenez (BOW) - 22
Oscar Salazar (BOW) -22

RBI

Oscar Salazar (BOW) - 96

SB

Daniel Figueroa (DEL) - 35

W

Craig Anderson (BOW/NOR) - 12

ERA (min. 75 IP)

Wilfredo Perez (DEL) - 1.67

IP

Craig Anderson (BOW/NOR) - 167

K

David Hernandez (FRE) - 16

SV

Cory Doyne (NOR) - 29

Orioles vs Devil Rays: The Race for Last!

2007-09-05T14:10:00.000-07:00

Baltimore and Tampa Bay are fighting one another to avoid the ignominy of finishing last. It's a war going on right now on two (2!) different fronts - the standings and the bullpen ERA leaders. The Orioles hold a four game lead in the standings and a slight edge in bullpen ERA (5.93 to 6.17), but keep checking back. This race is sure to go down to the wire!

Callups

2007-09-05T13:48:00.000-07:00

With active rosters expanding to (a maximum of) 40 players, the Orioles called up Luis Hernandez, Brandon Fahey, Gustavo Molina, and Fernando Cabrera.

I'm interested in seeing what Cabrera does, but the other three are no-hit position players that have no role on this team. What is the fascination with Hernandez and Fahey? Do the Orioles not understand offense? Molina is another light-hitting catcher. With JR House on the roster and not getting any playing time, do we really need to evaluate Molina this month, as if he has any business on a major league roster?

It's nice that Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry went right to the active roster, but it's very disappointing to see Nolan Reimold, Hayden Penn, Jon Knott, Jeff Fiorentino, and Cory Doyne won't get a shot this season.

And oh yeah! Rob Bell is back. He cleared waivers (imagine that) so he'll be in the bullpen once again. Now why you'd want to have a pitcher on your roster that is old with history of major league failure, I have no clue. Sendy Rleal was Designated for Assignment and Paul Shuey was given his long overdue release. Not that I wasn't rooting for Shuey, but let's get serious.

Plus the O's finally decided to win a game, 8-4 at Tampa Bay. Guthrie had another "meh" start, walking four and giving up three runs over six innings. But the bullpen pitched shockingly well and Aubrey Huff hit another homerun, his 15th. Don't look now, but Huff is starting to look like a real, live offensive player. So that's nice 4 months later.

Congratulations, Nick Punto

2007-09-03T17:28:00.000-07:00

For being the worst player in the majors. And it's not even close. His VORP (-26.3) is far worse than the next worst player in the bigs, Craig Monroe (-15.0). Punto is hitting a robust .199/.288/.256 in 467 PA for the Twins. He's threatening to become the first player since Rob Deer (.179 in 1991) to hit less than .200 in a season of 500 or more PA. And isn't that just as exciting as a player chasing .400? It's always nice to see a guy really, truly flirt with the Mendoza Line.

Of course to have the lowest VORP in the league, you need to accrue some significant playing time. So Punto isn't really the worst player in the majors right now. At least I'm not sure that he is. There are untold dozens of players who could have been just as bad if given enough plate appearances. But isn't that the important part? Not everyone can hold a regular job at 3B with a .256 slugging percentage.

Punto has been a good enough defender to get his WARP to exactly 0.0 on the season, making him the definition (or at least BP's definition) of a replacement level player. So he's only the worst hitter in the league. But that's not half bad.

Bedard Out for the Season?

2007-09-03T17:00:00.000-07:00

Erik Bedard hasn't pitched since last Sunday against the Twins and the team doesn't know when he'll be back - if he's even back at all. Roch Kubatko has the latest. It's disappointing that his Cy Young Award bid is over, though that was likely the case after his poor performance against the Twins. I don't mean to sound like a crotchety, old sportswriter, but everything is falling apart right now. At least Markakis and Tejada are showing some power. And the offense as a whole has been strong lately. But this season looks like another 4-32 finish is on the way. I've tried to look at the positive developments this season, but that's getting harder to do - especially with Kurt Birkins on the mound about to give back a 4-0 lead to the Devil Rays.

No Hit

2007-09-02T09:31:00.001-07:00

The Orioles were the only team in the majors yet to be shut out heading into last night's game. Clay Buchholz saw fit to end that. He no-hit the Orioles last night in his second career start. The Orioles bullpen gave up 6 more runs in 3 innings and Boston won in a romp, 10-0.

I suspect the Orioles were the first team in baseball history to allow 30 runs and to be no-hit in the same fortnight, but I shall have to check the records on that one.

Trachsel to the Cubs

2007-09-01T00:05:00.000-07:00

I was wrong.

I was vocal that Steve Trachsel needed to be gone from the rotation on August 1 so that we could plan for the future. I assumed Trachsel would continue to pitch poorly, just as his peripherals indicated he would and that he had little trade value. I assumed that Garrett Olson and Brian Burres would be just as good. But instead it was Trachsel pitching brilliantly in August with Burres melting down after being moved to then pen and Olson performing poorly in his five starts as an Oriole.

And on the last day for teams to add players and have them eligible for the postseason, the Orioles sent Trachsel to the Cubs (another trade with Cubs?) for 3B Scott Moore and RP Rocky Cherry.

Moore was rated as a top 10 prospect in the Cubs system this offseason by Baseball America, John Sickels, and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. He then proceed to rake to the tune of an .899 OPS in Iowa this season, hitting .265/.373/.526 and improving his troublesome control fo the strike zone. He's only 23 so he's still young enough to have a legitimate career. His strike zone judgment is still worrisome, and he doesn't rate as a particularly good defender but he seems to be a guy that will hit enough to contribute over the next few seasons.

Cherry posted a 3.00 ERA in 15 innings out of the Cubs bullpen which means he's automatically the best pitcher in the Orioles bullpen. Maybe that isn't true, but he's still a nice arm to have around. His minor league track record isn't spectacular, and he is already 28. That being said, there's enough there to suggest that he can be a nice relief option in the near term. He strike out almost 10 batters per 9 innings in Iowa this season with other good peripherals despite a high ERA. The bullpen is sometimes a war of attrition, and Cherry is a nice guy to have in the mix.

It was a fantastic job by the Front Office. Moore and Cherry are certainly not cornerstones, but they could be cheap, effective contributors, a commodity that you can never have too much of.

How did it get worse?

2007-08-31T22:46:00.000-07:00

One of the great themes of the Orioles ineptitude seems to be that when you think they can get any worse in a particular area, they then proceed to do exactly that.

Last season's Orioles bullpen finished with a 5.25 ERA, ahead of only the Royals in the American League. The Front Office then proceeded with an aggressive strategy of procuring bullpen help through free agency, signing Danys Baez, Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford and Scott Williamson - a group that helped form the core of what has become derisively known to some as the $42M bullpen, the total financial commitment to the quartet (most of it to the first three).

But here we sit on September 1 and the Orioles' relief corps currently has a 5.78 ERA, ahead of only the Devil Rays in the American League. And that was before five relievers combined to give up six earned runs in six innings in a 9-8 win over the Red Sox.

The team has used 16 relievers this year, with only Bradford (118 ERA+) and Walker (154 ERA+) rating as above average relievers (league relief ERA = 4.25) as well as Jeremy Guthrie who has pitched predominantly as a starter.

After that it's a rotating list of relievers who range from average to abysmal including Ray, Leicester, Burres, Birkins, Hoey, Doyne, Baez, Johnson, Williamson, Parrish, Williams, Bell, and of course the incomparable Paul Shuey.

The Orioles have brought in their fair share of trash, but even seemingly decent relievers have pitched poorly. Chris Ray improved his peripherals tremendously but saw his ERA jump almost two runs. James Hoey pitched extremely well for a short stretch but once again has a four digit ERA. Danys Baez was always going to be wildly overpaid, but did anyone expect him to add two runs to his career ERA?

But what can be done? I'm a big proponent of the Earl Weaver strategy of letting young (future) starters throw out of the major league bullpen. If the rotation next season is Bedard/Cabrera/Guthrie/Loewen/Olson, pitch Liz, Penn and Burres out of the bullpen. Add that to a core of Baez, Walker, Hoey, and Bradford, and you have a nice bullpen. In theory at least. Maybe you see Francisco Cabrera in there somewhere, and Cory Doyne or Rocky Cherry will be options, too.

No more retreads. There is no place for Todd Williams, Rob Bell, and Paul Shuey to be in the bullpen. There's little downside in giving them a shot if the need arises, but the team can't continue to give them 20 appearances when it's clear they're not servicable pitchers anymore. Use vets with a long track record (Walker and Bradford) or young guys with big arms.

The team is dead last in WXRL (expected wins added over replacement level). I'm hesitant to say they can't get any worse, but when your entire bullpen is sub-replacement level, it's hard to get worse without setting records for ineptitude. With 16 losses when leading after seven, it isn't hard to see why the Orioles are one of the worst teams in baseball yet again.

Roster Moves

2007-08-25T11:13:00.000-07:00

The Orioles have made a couple of roster moves over the past few days.

The team demoted starter Garrett Olson to Bluefield and recalled starter James Johnson from Norfolk to pitch out of the bullpen. Olson started the second game of Tuesday night's debacle of a doubleheader against the Rangers and pitched poorly once again. Olson made five starts with the team and posted a 7.33 ERA with 21 K and 21 BB in 23 1/3 IP. He was sent to Bluefield to work out some specific mechanical issues and could be back on active roster even before it expands on September 1. While the incredibly high number of walks is concerning for a pitcher with a reputation of having great control, the high number of strikeouts indicates that while Olson struggled, he was not completely overmatched during his time in the majors.

In need of a starter for tonight's game against the Twins, Radhames Liz got the call from AA Bowie. Liz has put together a very nice season at Bowie striking out 161 but walking 70 in 137 innings, good for a 3.22 ERA. Liz suffers from control problems but has great stuff and gets tons of strikeouts - sort of a Daniel Cabrera figure. He's come on strong this season, changing his perception from future reliever to a possible starter although I still think he's likely a back end of the bullpen reliever. He still has to work on his control, but it's good that the club is getting a look at him this season for a possible role on the team next spring.

The Orioles also signed reliever Fernando Cabrera, recently released by the Indians. He's young and has struggled in the majors after putting up fantastic numbers in the minors. He's given up tons of homeruns, but his rate of HR on FB is ridiculously high, and we'd expect some regression on that number. He'll still give up his share if he gives up as many fly balls as he did with the Indians, but he could be primed to be a very good reliever. It's a very good low-risk, high-reward pickup for the team.

30-3

2007-08-22T19:44:00.000-07:00

It wasn't even embarassing. It was just funny. I'm not old enough to remember the Orioles losing to the Rangers 26-7 so I'm glad I got to see them lose to Texas 30-3. You get pissed off when your team loses 15-3. When the other team scores twice that many, you just appreciate seeing a little bit of history.

Danny Cab is not inconsistent any longer. He's just consistently bad. Brian Burres had inexplicably not pitched for nine days and had less than zero stuff tonight. He needed to eat up some innings after coming in with none out in the sixth, but he couldn't even finish that inning. By the time Rob Bell came into the game, it was well out of hand, but he and Paul Shuey combined to give up 16 ER over the final 3 1/3 innings. Bell now has an ERA above 6.00. Shuey is now above 9.00. Since I love to look at the positive, you'd have to think that the disgusting performance by these two tonight earned them a ticket out of Baltimore.

Trembley to Manage in 2008

2007-08-22T12:00:00.001-07:00

The Orioles announced yesterday that Dave Trembley will be brought back for the 2008 season. The club is 29-25 in 54 games since Trembley succeeded Sam Perlozzo has the team's skipper.

At the press conference today Andy MacPhail talked about the desire for the team to have the managerial situation resolved so that the manager and the front office could work together from the very beginning of the offseason to determine the future direction of the team. If that leads to a cohesive organizational decision, that's a nice accomplishment for the often directionless Orioles.

I thought at first that it would have been smart to have a proper managerial search in the offseason, but the players and front office seem to be comfortable with Trembley. I haven't seen anything that makes me think he's unfit to do the job, and although that might seem like a backhanded compliment, it's really not meant to be. Managers get second guessed and their mistakes are magnified by fans so Trembley avoiding Perlozzan mistakes.

Evaluating House

2007-08-19T22:41:00.000-07:00

JR House finally found his way onto the 25 (and 40) man roster in the abscense of Jay Gibbons, but he hasn't really found his way into the lineup. He started one game against the Blue Jays, pinch hit in games against the Yankees and Jays and got six at-bats over the two series. He's made good so far with 3 hits including a HR (but also a baserunning blunder in the 10th inning of today's game).

It's disappointing that House has only started one game. Paul Bako started a game at catcher in each of the two series so it seems clear that, at least for now, Bako will remain the backup C and House will serve mainly as a DH. Aubrey Huff has finally started to heat up over the last month (.382/.433/.727 with 4 HR in August) so he might be starting daily. Add in Kevin Millar riding a 40+ game streak of getting on base earning him a daily spot in the lineup, and there does not seem to be much time for House.

The general thinking is that the Orioles are hesitant to use House as a catcher because of his defense, and not having seen him play behind the plate, I have no idea whether the concerns are warranted. It seems to me that his defense is not likely to be much worse than Paul Bako's offense, in which case House should be the backup.

If House is at least competent defensively behind the plate, that would open up some interesting possibilities, assuming he can hit to the level his minor league numbers suggest he can. He'd certainly add more value to the team than Bako. It might also allow the team to trade Ramon Hernandez if he regains some value (i.e. power) in the near future. The Orioles could clear payroll with such a move while allowing House to serv as a bridge to catcher of the future Matt Weiters in 2008.

With the team done for the season, the Orioles ought to do themselves some good by giving House a few games behind the plate so that the Front Office can evaluate his defense at the Major League level. If he's terrible, no real harm done. If he isn't, the Orioles might have some real value in House for the next few seasons

Patterson and CF

2007-08-19T22:03:00.000-07:00

Corey Patterson got hot not long after Dave Trembley came aboard and made him a fixture in the number two spot in the order which led some to conclude that the lineup shift coaxed more offensive production out of Patterson. But in 16 August games Patterson is hitting .254/.292/.373 which is a shade below his already poor .264/.304/.377 line. His OBP in the #2 spot this year is .319, which is better than what he posted at the bottom of the order, but it's still a sinkhole that high in the order.

Patterson does some things very well like steal bases and play defense, but it's clear now that he can't be a long-term option in CF. With the number of high dollar Free Agent CF available this winter (Rowand, Hunter, Cameron, Jones), it's possible that Patterson could be had for cheap, but the team has to look to add an above average contributor en lieu of Patterson unless they can trim some fat at a few other places.

Nolan Reimold might be the long-term solution, but he's been set back by injuries this season. He's been torrid at Bowie in limited time, but Opening Day 2008 might be considered ambitious by the organization.

One option that likely will not be explored but perhaps should is the idea of moving Nick Markakis to CF. It's probably not going to happen now that Markakis has already been tagged as the RF of the future. He plays the corner spot well, but he's young, quick and athletic and could probably play a capable CF. If that's the case, a possible .300/.360/.460 type season would hold a lot more value.

The Orioles have had a bunch or trouble finding capable players to fill corner spots, but in theory filling RF with a relatively productive bat with a credible RF glove should be fairly simple. It could be a Knott/House RF equivalent off the scrap heap. In fact a Knott/Payton/RF combo manning the two corner OF spots might not be half bad for next season. What the front office must not do is sign another Jay Payton/BJ Surhoff hoping for one more season of league-average production out of them.

FIP/ERA

2007-08-19T19:28:00.000-07:00

I use FIP quite a bit. It's a theoretical ERA from Hardball Times which uses a pitcher's peripheral statistics (namely K/9, BB/9 and HR/9) to extract the effects of defense on a pitcher's performance record (ERA) theoretically giving a better picture of what a pitcher contributes by virtue of his own skills.

For it to be of any use, it needs to be predictive. It needs to show us that something happening now is or isn't likely to happen again in the future. So what I did was to compare 2005 ERA and 2005 FIP to 2006 ERA in order to determine whether ERA or FIP correlated better year to year.

I looked at the 51 pitchers from 2005-2006 who pitched 150+ innings in the same league in both 2005 and 2006

;<

          05 FIP  05 ERA 06 ERA
J Santana 2.80   2.87  2.77
Haren     3.84   3.73  4.12
Zito      4.37   3.86  3.83
Lackey    3.08   3.44  3.56
Garcia    4.05   3.87  4.53
Millwood  3.75   2.86  4.52
Bonderman 3.92   4.57  4.08
Westbrook 3.94   4.49  4.17
Garland   4.22   3.48  4.51
Robertson 4.72   4.48  3.84
Johnson   3.77   3.79  5.00
Rogers    4.07   3.46  3.84
Buerhle   4.37   3.86  4.99
Lee       3.80   3.79  4.40
Mussina   4.03   4.41  3.51
Contreras 4.20   3.61  4.27
Blanton   4.40   3.53  4.82
Sabathia  3.70   4.03  3.22
Lopez     4.64   4.90  5.90
Washburn  4.37   3.20  4.67
Meche     5.04   5.09  4.48
Silva     4.17   3.44  5.94
Byrd      3.94   3.74  4.88
Pineiro   4.41   5.62  6.36
Radke     4.45   4.04  4.32
Moyer     4.39   4.28  4.39
Webb      3.42   3.54  3.10
Harang    3.59   3.83  3.76
Smoltz    3.14   3.06  3.49
Willis    2.91   2.63  3.87
Carpenter 2.86   2.83  3.09
Capuano   4.54   3.99  4.03
Oswalt    3.08   2.94  2.98
Hudson    4.22   3.52  4.86
Lowe      4.10   3.61  3.63
Pettitte  3.03   2.39  4.20
Zambrano  3.62   3.26  3.41
Schmidt   3.77   4.40  3.59
Morris    3.91   4.11  4.98
Davis     3.87   4.16  4.91
Peavy     2.80   2.88  4.00
Francis   4.62   5.68  4.16
Myers     3.99   3.72  3.91
Glavine   3.56   3.53  3.82
Marquis   4.88   4.13  6.02
Suppan    4.48   3.57  4.12
Penny     3.57   3.90  4.33
Fogg      4.90   5.05  5.49
Lieber    4.13   4.20  4.93
Ja Wright 5.08   5.46  5.48
Milton    5.37   6.47  5.54

R for FIP = 0.64
R for ERA = 0.51

(R is correlation coefficient)

Ray has Tommy John Surgery; Baez Closing

2007-08-18T12:21:00.000-07:00

What a dagger for the Orioles bullpen. Chris Ray had Tommy John surgery this week so instead of being back on the roster next month or on Opening Day '08, he won't be back until after the All-Star Break next season. And that's actually a best case scenario. It's not entirely unlikely that he misses the entire 2008 season.

I had a lot of faith in Ray even through his struggles this season as I said here a couple times. Despite the jump in ERA and the blown saves I felt that he improved from last season and was going to be a fine closer in the future. He will still have a shot to be that elite closer going forward, but even though Tommy John isn't a huge risk surgery anymore, this still clouds Ray's future. Losing a year to an arm injury is never a good thing for a pitcher.

Danys Baez was officially named the closer, presumably for the rest of the year or until he loses the job, by manager Dave Trembley. Baez had a three up, three down ninth today to gain his first save as the full-time closer. If he can pitch well down the stretch and rack up a few saves, there might be an outside chance at Baez becoming a tradeable asset which you'd hope the Orioles would take advantage of to get out from under his contract. I doubt that's why the move was made, but it might be a nice benefit if it works out.

Olson out of Control

2007-08-17T18:58:00.000-07:00

Garrett Olson got his fourth start of the season and his struggles with his control continued. He threw less than 50% of his pitches for strikes (36 of 74) and last only 2 2/3 innings. He walked 4 and struck out only one, brining his total to 18 BB in 18 1/3 innings so far this season. It's a very small number of innings, too small to draw conclusions from, but the lack of control from a guy who didn't have those types of problems in the minors is discouraging.

Turning Point?

2007-08-16T14:14:00.000-07:00

Maybe it's too early to label yesterday a turning point in the Orioles' direction. In fact, it is too early. But that doesn't mean that five years from now the day we signed Matt Wieters as a big day in the club's history.

It's not just about Wieters. He's no sure thing, even if he was the best, or second best, or fifth best player in the draft. But it was huge because the club took the best available player in the draft, started down super agent Scott Boras, and in the end did what it took to sign Wieters giving him a $6M bonus, second highest in history behind Justin Upton.

Joe Jordan has received lots of praise for the rejuvenated farm system and improved drafting efforts since he took over. Adding a willingness to draft and pay for top amateur talent without regard to "signability" might be what it takes to propel the Orioles player development system firmly into the top half of the majors.

The team also paid big for fifth round pick Jake Arrieta signing him to a record bonus for the fifth round. Even without having a 2nd or 3rd round pick, the Orioles might have managed to bring a large infusion of talent into the system.

Wieters Signed!

2007-08-15T22:06:00.001-07:00

It didn't happen until the 24th hour, but the Orioles got it done with C Matt Wieters of Georgia Tech, the club's first round draft pick. The Orioles also signed fourth round selection Jacob Arrietta, a pitcher from Texas Christian considered to be a first or second round talent.

Combined with Erik Bedard's sterling performance and the team's 6-3 win to take the series in Yankees Stadium, it was a great day to be an Orioles fan.

300 Games

2007-08-10T21:30:00.000-07:00

Tom Glavine recently won his 300th game, an excellent feat which puts an exclamation point on a Hall of Fame career. Commentators are now weighing in to wonder whether or not we'll ever see another pitcher win so many games, which is exactly what happened after Greg Maddux won his 300th game. And what happened after Roger Clemens won his 300th. And I'd bet a few shiny nickels that there were people saying it when Nolan Ryan won his 300th back in 1990 way back when Roger Clemens was just a 28 year old pup with 116 career wins.

But will it be the last? Conventional wisdom says that it's harder than ever to win 300. Before we dive into that, let's look at the number of 300 game winners by the decade in which they debuted.

1880: 1
1890: 4
1900: 2
1910: 2
1920: 2
1940: 1
1960: 2
1980: 5
1990: 1
2000: 3

Do we see any trends? It sure doesn't seem like it. Pud Galvin was the first 300 game winner in 1888, and from 1888 to 1901 there were 7 players to win 300. From 1982 to 2007 there have been 9 players to get 300 wins. The real decline was seen from 1902 to 1980 when only 7 players won their 300th game. The big gap was from the summer of '41 to the summer of '61 between Lefty Grove winning his 300th and Warren Spahn winning number 300.

Getting to 300

Old Hoss Radbourne got to 309 wins even though he only pitched 11 seasons largely because he had two seasons where he won a combined 107 games. Pud Galvin won 364 games over 15 seasons, and his quest was aided by consecutive 46 win seasons.

That's not happening today. In fact, in 2006, no major league pitcher got to even 20 wins. Starters throw fewer innings and make fewer starts in a season than their predecessor, and they rarely complete their starts anymore. That's where the conventional wisdom that pitchers will have a harder time winning 300 comes from.

What this ignores is that there are many ways to accomplish 300 wins. As I talked about above, pitchers can be like the workhorses of 125 years ago, making 70+ starts and winning 45 games over shorter careers, but they can also be like the great pitchers of today who pitch less but have extended their careers into their mid-40s.

And there are a good number of pitchers pitching well into their 40s. Roger Clemens, Jamie Moyer, Randy Johnson, Kenny Rogers, David Wells, Woody Williams, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Orlando Hernandez, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Curt Schilling have all made starts this season after turning 40. That's 12 pitchers, and if that isn't a record, it has to be close.

What's important to remember is that even though workloads are being restricted more than ever now, the theoretical goal is to keep pitchers healthier. If that's a philosophy grounded in reality we shouldn't expect it to be particularly uncommon for some starters to throw well into their 40s. If a pitcher can begin his career at 22 and pitch until he's 43 or 44, that changes the equation quite a bit, because then a pitcher needs to average only 13 or 14 wins a season over his career to reach 300.

This certainly doesn't mean that there undoubtedly is a cause and effect between the number of older pitchers and lower workloads. After all, Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson endured high workloads for years, as did Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, and others from the last great generation of starters, yet they all pitched well into their 40s. But even if this correlation does not imply causation, it's something to think about.

Who's Next

Randy Johnson (284, 43) - It's never a good idea to count out Randy Johnson. Many thought he was done after 2003, but he came back in 2004 and had a season that would have netted him his 6th Cy Young Award if he didn't play for a 51 win Arizona team. The Big Unit was written off again last year before coming back strong this season, only to see his year end after 60 innings. He apparently wants to come back, but he may have to be willing to pitch into 2009 - when he'll turn 46 in September of that year - to get to 300.

Mike Mussina (246, 38) - Mussina had an excellent 2006, but 2007 hasn't been so kind. It's the 3rd time in four season that Mussina has missed some time and saw his performance suffer. Moose isn't pitching nearly bad enough to have to worry about not having a job, and he'll likely pitch at least one more season after 2007. Still, 300 looks to be a good 4 years away. Will Mussina keep pitching as a mediocre starter or will he pack it in before he's 42 and chasing 300? He may need a resurgence similar to the one Tom Glavine experienced after 2003.

Andy Pettitte (194, 35) - Pettite just turned 35 and has an outside shot of making it to 200 by the end of the year. Pettitte would have to pitch well into his 40s to have an honest shot of reaching the milestone, but with the exception of his first season with the Astros back in 2004, he's generally maintained his health throughout his career. His last two seasons have been above-average, but not spectacular, perhaps forecasting a possible collapse in the near future.

CC Sabathia (95, 27) - Sabathia is a real dark horse to be sure, but the big lefty will likely get his 100th win in his age 26 season - quicker than both Glavine and Clemens. Sabathia will have to keep his weight in check to pitch long enough to do it, but if David Wells can pitch until he's 44, why not Sabathia? Sabathia has about 20 more wins than fellow 26 year old Carlos Zambrano and a few more than 28 year old Johan Santana. Of any of the young pichers between 25 and 30, Sabathia seems to have the best shot.

It's likely that none of these four will be the next 300 game winner. But if I had to bet, I'd say that someone will.

No Joy in Steeltown

2007-08-10T21:15:00.000-07:00

Alright, this isn't exactly new, but the great Rob Neyer pointed out that Matt Morris will become the highest paid player in Pirates history next season after they acquired him from the Giants at the Trade Deadline last week. That's the Matt Morris who will be 33 next season and has had precisely one season better than the league average in the past four. He was very good for the Cardinals back when he was young and cheap, but now, not so much.

There's only one Pirates payroll fact crazier than Matt Morris making the most money in team history. The player being paid the most money by the Pirates this season is Jason Kendall, a guy who:

a) has a .582 OPS
b) played for the Athletics and Cubs this season and
c) hasn't played a game for the Pirates since way back in 2004

And that's the highest paid player on a team with a $38.5M payroll. The Pirates will always have trouble competing with a payroll that low, but they'll never compete when they allocate so much money to Jason Kendall and Matt Morris while drafting relief pitchers with the top 5 draft picks they've "earned". But as an Orioles fan, I'll thank them for not scooping up Matt Weiters...assuming the Orioles can sign him.

Playing a Man Down...Again

2007-08-10T17:33:00.000-07:00

Interesting note from Roch Kubatko of the Sun today:

Manager Dave Trembley has been suffering in silence. He couldn’t use Jay Gibbons in the outfield because of a shoulder injury, but didn’t want opponents to know. So he kept playing the same three outfielders - and kept watching Jay Payton lose steam by the inning.
Gibbons has inflammation around his rotator cuff and can't throw. He was examined Monday by Reds team physician Dr. Timothy Kremchek, who performed the surgery on Brian Roberts' elbow in 2005, and underwent an MRI and arthrogram.
The pain doesn't prevent Gibbons from swinging a bat, which is why he still can be used as the designated hitter. But it limits how often Trembley can put him in the lineup because Aubrey Huff usually handles the DH duties.

Shouldn't the O's jump on any excuse to put Gibbons on the DL and get him off the active roster? Instead they're willing to play a man short yet again, keeping Gibbons on the roster even though his health and the roster configuration makes his role that of the occasional DH.

Gibbons did manage to hit .281 with 3 HR in July, but he also pulled the nifty feat of failing to draw a walk in 58 plate appearances leading to a .281/.276 BA/OBP line. Most of that hot streak was because of a couple games in early June. Over the past four weeks Gibbons is putting up his customary .656 OPS in 13 starts.

And this is the guy they're keeping on the roster through an injury?

Olson Recalled

2007-08-10T15:42:00.000-07:00

With Brian Burres pitching two innings in mopup relief last night the Orioles were in need of a starter for Saturday's game against the Red Sox so they called up lefty Garrett Olson from Norfolk. I've talked about the need for Olson to return to the Baltimore rotation before so hopefully this move is permanent. Olson threw only three innings in his past two starts, both cut short after long rain delays, so we'll see whether that rest has him extra fresh or just rusty on Saturday.

Erik Bedard takes the mound tonight in what could be a great pitcher's duel with Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka. Bedard enters the game having won eight straight decisions and is putting together a season that should legitimately contend for the AL Cy Young Award. He's second in the AL in VORP behind Dan Haren of the Athletics. His ERA sits at 3.09 and he's still leading the majors in strikeouts by a wide margin with 192. If Erik can stay on the roll he's been on the Orioles will be able to snap this pesky three game losing streak.

Orioles Make Moves

2007-08-09T13:32:00.000-07:00

After being completely inactive at the non-waiver trade deadline, the Orioles made two transactions today, trading LHP John Parrish to the Mariners for minor league OF Sebastian Boucher. The team also allowed the Indians to claim UTI Chris Gomez off of waivers for the $20,000 waiver fee.

Not much could have been expected in a trade for Parrish, and that's exactly what the Birds got. Boucher is a 25-year-old former 7th rounder out of Bethune-Cookman. Although Boucher put up nice numbers at AAA Tacoma in a short trial this season, he spent most of the past two seasons in AA, failing to hold his own offensively at either San Antonio in 2006 or West Tennessee in 2007. He does draw his share of walks and can steal bases, but his .364 career minor league slugging means he's never likely to be a useful major leaguer. James Hoey was recalled from Norfolk to take Parrish's spot in the bullpen.

While I was certainly no fan of Parrish, it seems odd to trade him for a lesser minor leaguer. If the Front Office was set on getting Hoey back to the bigs - which I applaud them on - Shuey or perhaps Bell should have been the ones to go.

The Gomez move was a stranger. Gomez certainly is an expendable part, but he had at least shown competence with the bat during his three seasons with the Orioles as well as an ability to play all four infield positions if needed. It seems odd that the team would give him away for nothing, though presumably the team wants to keep both Brandon Fahey and Freddie Bynum on the 25 man roster after Bynum is activated from the disabled list.

Tike Redman was added to the 40 man roster and called up from Norfolk to take Gomez' roster spot. Redman is another guy who won't hit his way out of wet paper bag. He's now 30 and has a .278/.312/.378 line in 392 games with the Pirates. Jon Knott remains at Norfolk, and JR House is also there, not even on the 40 man roster. But the men in charge think that Tike Redman is more valuable than either of those guys.

Another Crazy Winter

2007-08-07T17:52:00.000-07:00

It shouldn't be any surprise that the free agent market gets crazier and crazier every season. Reports today had Eric Byrnes resigning with the Diamondbacks for a reported 3 years and $30M.

Byrnes is a useful enough player. The Orioles should have held onto him after acquiring him from the Rockies at the 2005 trade deadline, but they were scared off by an abysmal end to that season. Byrnes righted his career by hitting 26 HR with Arizona in 2006. This year he's hitting over .300 and slugging just a tick under .500.

But to commit $10M to his age 32-34 seasons is ridiculous. That's the nature of Free Agent contracts, but in the two seasons before this one Byrnes had OBPs of .294 and .313. He has a career OPS+ of 102, with extreme platoon splits (.888 vs LHP, .740 vs RHP).

Eight figures for a 32 year old who has been average throughout his career and would be well-served in a part-time role? God Bless America.

At least Arizona won't regret it as much as the Dodgers regret signing Juan Pierre to man CF for them. In the first year of a 5 year/$44M deal, Pierre has put up a .277/.314/.331 (OPS+ = 69) line with 0 HR. At least he has 44 steals.

Cory Doyne and Fear of the Unknown

2007-08-07T16:50:00.000-07:00

I have no idea how good Cory Doyne is. His performance at AAA this season suggests he could be valuable in a relief role, but it's certainly possible, perhaps probable, that he can't replicate that success in the majors.

Even if he can't it would seem to be something worth finding out. The Orioles disagree. Doyne was sent back to Norfolk in exchange for Kurt Birkins, and while Doyne might not have pitched particularly well at all, he was scoreless in three of his five innings this season.

Doyne could be an option out of the bullpen in future years. Paul Shuey, on the other hand, will not be. Less than four innings of work was enough to send Doyne south, but Paul Shuey is still here after 18 games despite a 7.14 ERA. What's wrong with this picture?

I've talked about this before, but the tendency to rely on experience over talent is something that has to change. What good does it do to have Paul Shuey racking up sub-replacement level innings with other younger options in the minors?

Bring on Olson!

2007-08-07T16:31:00.000-07:00

Steve Trachsel gets another start tonight for the Birds, and so far he's unscathed through one inning, at least as far as scoring goes (although as I type this Raul Ibanez led off the second with a homer to left). But of course Trachsel isn't very good at all, to put it mildly. There's tons of evidence, but perhaps the best is his staggering 56 BB to just 39 K ratio so far this season.

But enough with the negative. Because the Orioles do have someone better. It's disheartening that the O's refuse to use that pitcher, but at least he exists. Garrett Olson has dominated this season in Norfolk. He pitched well enough to get the call for a couple of starts in Baltimore after Steve Trachsel went on the disabled list. Olson was mediocre in those two starts, working 9 1/3 innings and walking 8.

But make no mistake, Olson is ready to pitch in the majors. He responded masterfully to his undeserved demotion throwing 21 innings over his first three starts after arriving back in Norfolk, striking out 23 and walking 5 while allowing just one earned run. For the season Olson's ERA stands at an even 3.00 with 118 K in 126 IP.

Olson has steadily worked his way up the ladder in the minors, pitching well at every stop. His future is bright. Hopefully the Orioles can find 8 or so starts to finish off the year instead of the useless Steve Trachsel. It might just help the all-important drive to .500, too.

Out in Leftfield

2007-07-30T22:11:00.000-07:00

It takes a special brand of incompetence to fail to surpass even the lowest expectations, but yet the Orioles' Front Office manages to find ways to do it.

Last year's left field situation for the Birds was pathetic. At a position where offense should be incredibly easy to find, a gaggle of Orioles' LF hit .248/.322/.359 in 2006. That .682 OPS was easily the worst in the majors. Jeff Conine and, inexplicably, Brandon Fahey got the lion's share of the playing time there, but Nick Markakis (before his break out), Luis Matos, David Newhan, Jeff Fiorentino and a few others saw time there. But in a perverse way, LF might have been a bright spot. Certainly it couldn't get any worse, could it?

Apparently so. With the Two Jays (Gibbons and Payton) splitting up LF duties, the team's LF have cobbled together a nifty .247/.302/.349 mark this season. But in the spirit of fairness, the Royals and the Nationals have managed to field even less impressive left fielders, at least as judged by OPS. And with 5 HR already, the LF are on their way to shattering last season's standard of 7.

At least we're not in the dark days of 2005 where the team got .239/.289/.381 production out of LF.

It really shouldn't be this hard. To go three consecutive seasons without getting a .700 OPS out of one of your four corner spots (or DH) is unacceptable. LF that can put up a .700 OPS almost literally grow on trees. Luis Terrero (.715 OPS), formerly a member of this very organization, has done it for the White Sox this year. Jon Knott could almost certainly do it. Platoon Jeff Fiorentino with someone who can hit lefties reasonably, and you wouldn't do any worse than a .650 OPS. And that would be for less than 10% of the cost of the current LF.

If the Orioles failed with cheap, inventive solutions like the ones above, it wouldn't be fun, but at least it would be better than getting that run production from two guys combining to make nearly eight figures. Maybe next year will be the year for some wise roster moves under MacPhail. Let's just hope that somehow, someway, the Two Jays aren't out in left field for the 2008 Orioles.

Tejada returns

2007-07-27T17:41:00.000-07:00

..and because of that the Orioles needed to make a roster move. And as everyone might have guessed, Jon Knott is the one going back to Norfolk. The Orioles' bench for tonight's game against the Yankees is Chris Gomez, Luis Hernandez, Brandon Fahey, and Paul Bako. That's three utility middle infielders and a backup catcher. This is for a team starting five players at or a below a .700 OPS at the beginning of the night.

Jon Knott was a nice test for manager Dave Trembley. I was interested to see how Knott would be used under the new regime. At first it appeared that Knott was going to start against lefthanded pitching. That was a reasonable approach, but it didn't work out that way. The Orioles last game against a lefthander was Tuesday against Scott Kazmir with Knott nowhere to be found.

During the past two weeks Aubrey Huff went 7-36 (.194) but played in every game. Knott started three games and pinch hit once, failing to get a hit. Even with Huff (and Gibbons and others) not hitting Trembley was unwilling to try something new, plugging Huff's sub-.300 OBP into the lineup every single day.

Roch Kubatko's blog had an interesting tidbit from Trembley:

Knott was optioned because Trembley is stressing pitching and defense at the moment. He said if the Orioles need another right-handed bat, they'll dip into Norfolk's roster again.

If the team needs another right-handed bat? Right now Kevin Millar, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Miguel Tejada are the only hitters on the team that can be expected to provide league-average production. This team needs another credible hitter from either side of the plate, and Jon Knott is a lot more credible than half of the current roster.

It's fine to build around pitching and defense, but I truly wonder whether the offensive failings of the team are even considered? With Mora out, Huff can play third, Gomez and, let's say, Fahey can serve as backups. What role does that leave for Luis Hernandez? At least Freddie Bynum was fast and could play the outfield positions. Hernandez brings defense, but if he doesn't play, what good is he?

So far the Trembley era seems eerily familiar to the Perlozzo era in terms of philosophy, if not attitude. Let's hope Andy MacPhail takes note of both.

Mid-Season prospect review

2007-07-24T18:27:00.000-07:00

Now that we're about four months into the season, I thought it would be a good time to look back at the Orioles best prospects in the preseason and check in with how they're doing and what they're future looks like. I've decided to use John Sickels top 20 list found here as the reference list. I'll take a look later at some others to note who didn't make this list.

1. Billy Rowell, 3B, 2006 1st round

Rowell is the jewel of the Orioles' farm system. He tore up Bluefield in his debut hitting .329/.422/.507 in 42 games before hitting .326 in a brief trial with Aberdeen to end the season. And all of this for a guy in his age-17 season. Rowell's 2007 has been derailed by injuries limiting him to only 53 games. The .268 /.341/.405 (5 HR) line isn't exciting, but in the context of an 18 year old playing for Delmarva, it's extremely encouraging. It will be interesting to see how he progresses as he moves further away from his injury. The strike zone judgment (22/64 BB/K) is cause for some concern as are the defensive questions. It's possible Rowell ends up at 1B, but if he can play an adequate 3B, his bat becomes much more valuable. Rowell is still far away, but

2. Brandon Erbe, RHP, 2005 3rd round

Hometown prospect Erbe took the system by storm in his 2005 debut at Bluefield striking out 48 batters in just 23 1/3 IP as a 17 year old. He pitched mostly in relief at Bluefield, getting three starts before moving onto a brief stint in Aberdeen. He began the 2006 season in Delmarva and dominated with 10.44 K/9 and just 2 HR allowed in 114 2/3 IP. But after moving up the ladder to Frederick, Erbe has been hit hard. Carolina League bats have torched him with a 6.25 ERA over 19 starts. The walks are up and the strikeouts are down, though he's still getting many K's. The odd thing is that the HR rate is up so much despite an increase in G/F ratio. But that's to be expected perhaps - his G/F in Delmarva was a relatively poor 0.89. Erbe is still young though, and his peripherals suggest he isn't nearly as bad as his ERA suggests. Even if he has to come back to Frederick to start next season, he'll still be on the fast track to the bigs assuming he can work out his control issues. The Orioles need only patience and a strict limit to the workload of the not yet 20 Erbe.

3. Nolan Reimold, OF, 2005 2nd round

Reimold shot quickly out of the gate after being drafted from Bowling Green in 2005 destroying New York Penn League pitching at Aberdeen before doing the same in a 23 game test in Frederick, skipping low-A completely. Reimold played all of 2006 in Frederick and performed well despite injuries. Now 23, he's moved onto Bowie but unfortunately has played only 19 games due to injuries. He's raked so far, but he needs to get healthy and back on his way up the organization. Reimold's game is based on power and walks. He hit only .267 over his first two years but has drawn 121 BB and has 37 HR in 211 career minor league games. He's a legitimate prospect, but injuries and high strikeout totals are warning signs. He'll hopefully be in an Orioles uniform by mid-2008.

4. Garrett Olson, LHP, 2005 1st round

Olson has been nothing but dominant and reliable as he quickly climbed the organizational ladder. He dominated the NYPL in his debut before skipping right to the Carolina League where he made only 17 starts before moving to Bowie. 14 starts in the Eastern League were good enough to earn a promotion to the International League. 17 stars in Norfolk were enough to prove his worth to the Orioles as an injury-replacement starter where he performed admirably. He was considered to be a polished college pitcher out of Cal Poly and needed only 54 starts in the minors to reach Baltimore. The minor league numbers were outstanding - an ERA below 3.00, about 9.00 K/9 and less than 3.00 BB/9. His upside wasn't considered great, but all he's done is have success at every level, reaching the bigs at 23. He looks like a good bet to be a solid middle of the rotation starter as soon as next year.

5. Pedro Beato, RHP, 2006 1st round

Beato struck out 52 batters in 57 innings with Aberdeen last year out of junior college. The results have been just as good at Delmarva with a 3.33 ERA in 20 starts, but an 84/47 K/BB ratio in 108 innings is reason for pause. He's only allowed 4 HR which is a plus. Beato is just 20, and has shown a steady decline in walk rate each month since April. If that improvement continues he should be ready for Frederick next season where his career will begin to get really interesting.

6. Radhames Liz, RHP, ---

Liz is ostensibly a starter, but that will change before too long. Liz has poster better than a strikeout per inning at every single stop, but those have come with walks. Lots and lots of walks. 173 in 331 innings to be exact. He's another guy that hasn't given up many HR, just 29 in his pro career. He's 24 and still trying to master AA ball, but that's somewhat deceiving. He didn't debut until his age-22 season. But since 2005 he's moved quickly up the ladder, starting 2005 in Aberdeen and ending 2006 in Bowie. He's never been allowed to master the lower-levels completely and given his lack of pro experience his command issues are understandable. Still, Liz doesn't look to be ready for the ML rotation anytime soon, so a switch to relief might be beneficial. If that were to happen Liz might be ready in the very near future.

7. James Hoey, RHP, 2003 13th round

I talked at length about Hoey in my last post. He pitched at three levels in 2006, striking out well over a batter per inning in about 60 innings spread between Delmarva, Frederick, and Bowie. He trimmed his walk rate as well and earned a call up to the majors where he was hit hard. He's been even more dominant in 2007 with a 0.89 ERA and a 58/10 K/BB ratio over 40 innings between Bowie and Norfolk. He's 24 and looks to be an excellent relief prospect. He should be called up right now.

8. Jeff Fiorentino, OF , 2004 3rd round

Fiorentino was drafted out of Florida Atlantic in 2004 and destroyed pitchers in the New York-Penn League as well as the South Atlantic League in his first season. He hit .286/.346/.508 in Frederick at age 22 in a 2005 season marred only by an extremely ill-advised promotion from A ball to the majors where, to his credit, he didn't embarrass himself. Fiorentino's stint at Bowie in 2005 was marked by a nearly 100 point drop in his isolated slugging that was offset by a great increase in strike zone judgment (53/58 BB/K). Fiorentino started 2007 at Bowie and has had a somewhat disappointing season on the whole. His power is nearly identical, but his plate discipline regressed from 2006 levels. To be fair, much of the problem came from a terrible April. He's heated up nicely over the past three months and looks more than ready for his first shot at Norfolk. Probably only a backup outfielder. His splits strongly suggest he should platoon vs. RHP, but the Orioles almost certainly will ignore that.

9. Brandon Snyder, C, 2005 1st round

Snyder was highly regarded coming out of high school in 2005, and he rewarded the team with a .271/.380/.493 line at Bluefield to go with 8 HR in 44 games as an 18 year old before hitting .393 in a brief trial in Aberdeen. 2006 was a disaster. Snyder couldn't put up a .600 OPS in either Aberdeen or Delmarva with a gruesome 14/98 BB/K ratio in 72 games before being shutdown with a torn labrum. His status was very much up in the air heading into this season, but he's responded with a .287/.356/.408 line for Delmarva. The power is still on the light side, but he's just 20 playing in the SAL coming off of a serious injury so there's plenty of optimism. His future as a catcher is questionable, and he might be blocked by Matt Weiters soon enough at that position. If he sticks as a 1B/DH he'll need to hit more to become a plus player.

10. James Johnson, RHP, 2001 5th round

Johnson is sort of the opposite of a sleeper prospect. He's always had good results (3.82 ERA through 2006) and hasn't struggled in any meaningful way at any level. By the time he got to class A, he's always been about the right age for his league. His peripherals have been solid rather than great, but they've held up well as he's advanced with a K-rate around 8.00/9 and a walk rate a shade over 3.00/9 to go with a good HR-rate. It's been more of the same in his first turn at class AAA with a 3.76 ERA in 19 starts. He's now 24 and probably too far down the organizational depth chart to get an honest shot in the rotation, but he should be looked at long and hard for a spot in the bullpen by Opening Day 2008.

11. Jason Berken, RHP, 2006 6th round

It hasn't been a great season for Berken. The 23 year old righthander out of Clemson has posted a 4.95 ERA over 18 starts for Frederick. After dominating Aberdeen to the tune of 46 K and 5 BB, Berken's rates came down to earth after the move to a more age appropriate level. It's important to remember that he completely skipped the South Atlantic League, and there are some positive signs. Berken has allowed just 6 HR so far in 96 1/3 IP. The groundball tendency will be very helpful if he stays as he climbs the ladder.

12. Chris Vinyard, 1B, 2005 38th round

Vinyard is an intriguing power prospected drafted out of junior college. After posting 8 HR and 26 2B in 73 games for Aberdeen, Vinyard retained some of the power with 11 HR and 23 2B in 94 games for Delmarva. But the drop in SLG to .431 is certainly a bad indicator, as is the 84/24 K/BB ratio. He's still only 21 so there's still time for him, but the drop in power and the poor strike zone judgment are worrisome.

13. Ryan Adams, SS, 2006 2nd round

Drafted out of high school, Adams started his career at age 19 for Bluefield. Despite hitting just .256, Adams drew 19 BB in 34 games to boost his OBP to .361. After a short stint with Aberdeen to end 2006, Adams started this season with the Ironbirds. Though still early in the season, Adams has hit just just 4 XBH (no HR) and has drawn just 6 BB in just over 100 AB. Given his status as a middle infielder, the offensive bar will obviously be lower, but a .658 OPS in short season ball isn't promising. Considering that the season is still relatively young for Adams, it might be beneficial to wait for an evaluation until after the season.

14. Val Majewski, OF, 2002 3rd round

I'm a bit surprised that Majewski even made a preseason prospect list. At one time Majewski certainly was a decent prospect, hitting well enough in Bowie to get a cup of coffee in the bigs in 2004. But then a shoulder injury wiped out his entire 2005 campaign. Majewski got his first shot at class AAA upon his return but slugged just .381 for Ottawa. Demoted to Bowie to start 2007, Majewski hit just 3 HR in 91 games for the Baysox. The shoulder injury seems to have zapped his power almost completely. He was never going to be a power hitter, but he had enough to make it as a backup outfielder for a while. Majewski recently, er, earned a promotion to Norfolk, but it's unlikely he makes it back to the Show.

15. Kieron Pope, OF, 2005 4th round

Pope struggled mightily in his first shot at Bluefield in 2005. Still 19, Pope got another shot at the Appalachian League and didn't waste it, hitting .341/.411/.585 in his second year in the league. That was enough to earn him a promotion to Aberdeen where Pope had a dismal 20 game stretch, hitting .107 with no XBH and a disastrous 33/2 K/BB ratio. Pope has been sidelined all season with a shoulder injury so he hasn't gotten his second shot at Aberdeen yet. That's unfortunate. Pope has intriguing upside, but he's clearly very raw (see: 131 K in 98 pro games) and in need of experience. He'll have to work hard to get back on track as a prospect.

16. Zach Britton, LHP, 2006 3rd round

Britton struggled at Bluefield in 11 starts, posting a nearly identical number of strikeouts and walks. But for a high school pitcher getting his first taste of pro baseball, a little over 30 innings isn't the end of the story. His season just recently started at Aberdeen. He's given up just one HR in 11 starts, and sports a sub 4.00 ERA. The K/BB numbers still aren't exciting, but at least they've improved a bit. Another prospect to check in on after the season after he logs a more meaningful number of innings.

17. Brian Burres, LHP, 2001 31st round (Giants)

If all #17 prospects were this useful, the Orioles organization would be in fine shape. A nifty waiver claim from the Giants before the 2006 season, Burres had a fine year for Ottawa before getting his shot in Baltimore in 2007 after a rash of injuries. He's responded well, posting a 4.33 ERA split between the rotation (11 starts) and the pen. He has above average strikeout numbers to go with just one HR allowed every 12 innings so far this year. The main deficiency is a BB-rate above 5.00. Looking longterm, his future is probably in the bullpen with all of the starting arms in the organization, but he's done all he can to earn a slot. As a swingman, he'll be a nice use of a roster spot over the next few seasons. Hopefully.

18. Brett Bordes, LHP, 2006 9th round

An odd sort of selection for the list. Drafted out of Arizona State last year, Bordes posted a nice 2.02 ERA in 28 relief appearances for Aberdeen. Of course he was 22, and even worse, he averaged over 4.5 BB/9 and only a bit over 7.00 K/9, hardly dominant numbers. He advanced to low-A to pitch with Delmarva this year, and he's again had good results with a 2.45 ERA. But he's also walked one more batter (26) than he's struck out (25) so far in 29 1/3 IP. What is nice is his ridiculous 4.17 G/F ratio, a touch lower than last year's 4.79 G/F ratio. 60 innings into his pro career, and opponents still haven't homered off of him. The control obviously needs a massive amount of work, but the groundballs and strikeouts mean the Orioles might have a useful bullpen arm in three years.

19. Brian Finch, RHP, 2003 2nd round

Finch put up good ERAs as a starter in Frederick in 2005 and Bowie in 2006, but his peripherals had never been good throughout his minor league career. They collapsed at Bowie, but were masked by, well, it wasn't a lucky BABIP (.283 for Bowie), but it was something. A torn rotator cuff ended his 2007 before it could begin, and that might be the death knell for Finch's status as a prospect.

20. Blake Davis, SS, 2006 4th round

Davis was drafted out of Cal State-Fullerton last year, two rounds after Ryan Adams, but Davis started two levels higher at Delmarva due to his collegiate experience. He only managed a .670 OPS with 3 HR in 49 games, but that was enough to promote the now 23-year-old to class A. Davis hit .282 with just 1 HR though he did show good gap power (19 2B in 67 G). Davis was recently promoted to Bowie where he has struggled with a .195 average in 24 games. He's been aggressively promoted, and at only 23, there's still plenty of time for him to develop into a major leaguer.

Looking at the list, the one thing that sticks out the most is that every player but Liz was drafted. Liz was the only one of the Orioles Top 20 prospects from Latin America. It's a sad commentary on the state of the organization's Latin American scout that their only international prospect is one that was signed at 22. It's just another example of an underrated reason for the Orioles faults. Combine the moribund Latin scouting with no presence at all in Asia and it isn't hard to see why the team loses and the farm system was barren for so long.

Bullpen Management

2007-07-18T21:09:00.000-07:00

Hasn't this bullpen been mismanaged long enough? Not by the managers but by the front office.

John Parrish just doesn't have what it takes to be a major league pitcher. He has a live arm, you have to admit, as evidenced by 33 strikeouts in 34 innings. That's a pretty good way to keep a job as a reliever. But unfortunately he's also allowed a ghastly 28 walks on the year.

And that's not something new. In 211 1/3 career innings, he's walked 160. That's good for 6.81 BB/9. Even if you can blow it by batters as well as John Parrish, you have to have some basic level of control. Parrish doesn't have that, despite spending parts of six seasons with the Orioles dating back to 2000. He's never had it, and considering he's now 29, at what point does the organization realize it's finally time to cut bait? Parrish just isn't a major league caliber pitcher. Guys with a 5.82 ERA in middle relief, especially those with little prior track record, are imminently expendable.

Paul Shuey hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2003 before his call-up to Baltimore last month. He's good enough as bullpen filler for Norfolk, an experienced pitcher to step in and provide some innings in case of emergency pending his performance in AAA, although given that Shuey is 36, there doesn't seem to be much of a need to try to resurrect his career in the bigs.

But Shuey wasn't good in Norfolk, posting a 4.70 ERA (although in fairness his peripherals were strong). Considering that he had pitched in just six games in organized baseball from 2004-2006, what reason was there to promote Shuey? None, other than his performance from years ago when he was a very good middle reliever. So far Shuey has rewarded the Orioles with a 6.11 ERA in 11 appearances.

If the Orioles didn't have any options, maybe that would be acceptable (though you'd have to wonder why these two were the best relief options they could come up with). But there are options. Here are two:

Corey Doyne: 1.91 ERA/42.3 IP/47 K/14 BB/0 HR (age 25)
James Hoey: 0.72 ERA/ 37.3 IP/53 K/ 9 BB/ 1 HR (age 24)

Doyne put up those numbers at Norfolk while Hoey split the season between Bowie and the Tides.

Is this a small thing? Relatively speaking, it is. But it's also illustrative of the team's failures. In at least three areas

1) Relying on veterans and experience over youth, talent, and performance

It's the tendency of the Flanagan & Duquette to go with the veteran rather than the young guy who is likely to outperform him. Doyne and Hoey both pitched better than Shuey in the minors this season, but yet Shuey is the one member of the trio on the current major league roster.

It might be understandable if the young guys were 20 or 21, or the team were in the heat of the pennant race, but that's not the case. Hoey and Doyne are both in their mid-20s and as ready as they'll ever be to contribute in a major league bullpen. And in a season where the Orioles are once again miles out of the race, why are innings being given to a retread like Shuey rather than guys who might possibly be part of the team the next time the Orioles contend?

2) Poor roster management/planning

Hoey and Doyne did get a shot with the Orioles this season. They were called up and combined to throw one inning before being sent back down to Norfolk. You have to wonder what the Front Office was thinking in calling these guys up only to promptly shuttle them back to Norfolk before either could pitch a full major league inning.

Was it a lack of patience? Was it a move that wasn't thoroughly considered before it was executed? Either way, it speaks to the lack of planning to call these two up for two days, only to send them down for Rob Bell and Paul Shuey.

3) Holding on too long

I had no problem with having John Parrish on the opening day roster. He had, after all, posted an ERA well better than the league average over 84 appearances from 2003-2005. Even taking into account the control problems, that's enough for him to make the roster, especially considering his affordable six figure salary. But at some time it's time to make the realization that he just doesn't have it.

It's similar to the way the Orioles handled Todd Williams. He gave them solid relief work off of the scrap heap in 2005 despite poor peripheral numbers that forecasted a drop off. He was understandably brought back for 2006 where he struggled in posting a 4.74 ERA over in 62 appearances. But despite being 36, the Orioles brought him back to the organization calling him up long enough to post a 7.53 ERA in 14 games.

Instead of realizing that pitchers like Todd Williams and John Parrish are a dime a dozen and can be replaced, the team has held onto them as if they are valuable commodities worth trying to rehabilitate. And that's a problem.

Chris Ray

2007-07-15T22:05:00.000-07:00

Before the 2007 season, there was a general agreement that the Orioles had found their closer. It was deemed in the spring of '06 that Chris Ray would be the replacement for the departed BJ Ryan. Ray rewarded the organization for its confidence with a nifty 2.73 ERA in 66 IP, converting 33 saves in 38 chances.

But while others were singing his praises, I was more than a little worried about Ray's future in the closer role. His peripheral numbers were simply not that good in 2006. He was an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a tendency to give up lots of walks. His strikeout rate was good, but not good enough to compensate for his deficiencies in other areas. But an unsustainable .197 BABIP muted the effects of the poor peripherals. Well, not totally. Ray did give up a whopping 10 HR on the season which caused some concern. But in the minds of many, results were results, and Ray was getting the needed results even with his propensity to give up the longball.

Ray did struggle early in the season in terms of his ERA, but by mid-May he had lowered his ERA to 3.44. That number was inflated by two appearances where he gave up a combined 7 runs. Indeed Ray was unscored upon in his other 16 appearances. More importantly, Ray was giving up fewer fly balls and had a sterling 18:2 K:BB ration through 18 1/3 IP.

But the next 18 1/3 innings were not nearly as kind. In his very next appearance Ray retired just one batter and his ERA rose by nearly a full point. In 19 appearances over that span, Ray compiled a 6.87 ERA, driven by a nasty 15:13 K:BB ratio.

However since that terrible stretch, Ray has made five appearances totaling five innings. In those five innings of work he hasn't surrendered a run, has struck out 10, and has walked just two (including no walks in four of his five appearances).

It's tough to know the reason for the up and down performances by Ray this year. Obviously the fluctuations in the walk rate has been the major change throughout the season. My eyes told me that Ray has been doing a better job attacking the strike zone in his past five games, so I decided to check the data.

In his first 18 games, Ray threw a stellar 66.1% of his 298 pitches for strikes. In the second portion of the season, that number dropped to 60.8% of 358 pitches (notice the need for 60 more pitches to complete the same number of innings). But in this third leg of the season the number has risen back to only 62.9% in 81 pitches. That's not bad at all, but it isn't as good as it was early in the season.

Maybe it's just the perils of small sample size. Ray could end the year with a sub-3 ERA or with one that climbs back over 5.00. But for now, it might be best to have a little patience with Ray's struggles because he is on the right track.

Where we stand

2007-07-13T22:21:00.000-07:00

In my last post, I took a look at where the Orioles really stand so far this season and why there might be cause for optimism. But even the most optimistic view (third order wins) sees the team topping out at somewhere around 87 or 88 wins. Any Orioles fan would be happy if the team managed to win that many games this season, but it's not enough to make the playoffs. Indeed an AL East team would have needed to win at least 95 games in each of the past six seasons to make the playoffs. Not since the Yankees won the division at 87-74 in 2000 would fewer wins have done the trick.

So clearly with improvement necessary, we must evaluate what the team has for next season, and at what prices. Following is a look at all players under the team's control for the 2008 season.

Free Agents:

SS Miguel Tejada ($13M)
3B Melvin Mora (~$8.6M)
1B/DH Aubrey Huff ($8M)
C Ramon Hernandez ($7.5M)
2B Brian Roberts ($6.3M)
LF/DH Jay Gibbons ($5.7M)
LF/CF Jay Payton ($5M)
RP Danys Baez ($4.5M)
RP Jamie Walker ($4.5M)
RP Chad Bradford ($3.5M)

Subtotal: $67.6M

Options
SP Kris Benson ($7.5M Club, $0.5M buyout)
SP Steve Trachsel ($4.75M Club, $0.1M buyout)
1B/DH Kevin Millar ($2.75M Vesting)

Subtotal: $3.35M (estimated)

Arbitration

SP Erik Bedard ($5.5M, estimated)
SP Daniel Cabrera ($2.5M, estimated)
RP Chris Ray ($1M, estimated, assuming Super 2 status)

Subtotal: $9M

Pre-Arbitration

SP Adam Loewen (~$400k)
SP Jeremy Guthrie (~$400k)
RF Nick Markakis (~400k)

Subtotal: $1.2M

That's not exactly a pretty picture. The team has 17 players under contract next season - 4 starters, 4 relievers, and 9 position players - for a total of $81.15. They will also add some mix of Brian Burres, Garrett Olson, JR House, Jon Knott, James Hoey, Corey Doyne, and Nolan Reimold to the 25 man roster after camp breaks next year. None of those players are assured of a spot at this point, but all are somewhat attractive options, partly because none of those players will be eligible to arbitration for several seasons.

But the problem with the current roster construction should already be quite apparent at this point. The team has locked up an offensive core that is not close to being productive enough for the team to contend.

A modest upgrade could be expected if the team does a better job of roster management. Taking at-bats from Paul Bako, Brandon Fahey, Luis Hernandez, Alberto Castillo and other offensive dregs and assigning them to Jon Knott, JR House, or even Nolan Reimold could provide a small but cheap boon to the offense.

Modest bounce back seasons might be within reach for Ramon Hernandez, Miguel Tejada, and Aubrey Huff, but those could easily be offset from declines by Melvin Mora, Kevin Millar, and Jay Payton, all of whom will be 35 or older next season.

With this seasons' opening day payroll at $89.5M, there will be little room for meaningful free agent upgrades unless Peter Angelos decides to reach deeper in his pockets. Call me an optimist, but given the sizable increase in payroll this season, that just might happen. But unless the upgrade in payroll is substantial, the team will be far out of the running for any top-dollar free-agents. One can argue the merits of going after high dollar free agents - and I'd tend to agree - but the alternative of continuing to sign mediocre vets on the decline isn't particularly attractive.

The path seems clear enough. Andy MacPhail must work on a plan where some of the seven-figure veterans are traded and replaced with cheaper solutions, or more expensive, but smarter solutions. Yet that's easier said than done. Of the players locked up to long-term deals, Payton, Huff, Gibbons, Mora, and Baez are all unmovable because their contracts are paired with mediocre (or worse) performance.

Walker and Bradford have performed well, and might be able to be traded for small returns. And given the volatility of relievers and their small workloads, the Orioles would be wise to work hard to find a team that will accept their contracts at the upcoming trade deadline where relievers are likely to be at more of a premium than in the offseason.

More likely the team needs to trade Tejada, freeing up a substantial amount of payroll while likely still getting a useful part or two back. As painful as it might be, a trade of Brian Roberts has to be on the table if the team can get multiple high quality young players.

Andy MacPhail walks into a tough situation. While some solutions seem obvious to me (adding Knott and House, trading Tejada), there is no quick fix. MacPhail can only right the ship by crafting a detailed plan and adhering to it. A plan which, most importantly, stops the over reliance on mediocre veterans whose most attractive quality is the familiarity of their name.

Optimism?

2007-07-12T11:15:00.000-07:00

With Consecutive Losing Season Number 10 on the horizon, Orioles fans naturally turn their attention to the question of how to fix things. But one question that has to be asked is "how far away from contending is this team?". To that end it's worth looking deeper about where the team stands today.

The team currently sits at 38-49, but it's possible that the situation isn't quite as dire as that record indicates. That record is fueled by a ridiculously bad 8-18 record in one-run games. A team's record in one run games is largely - though not completely - a product of random chance rather than some peculiar inability to play well in pressure situations. That 8-18 record is worse than every team in the majors aside from the Yankees and the Phillies. Even worse, the team is tied with the Padres for most one-run losses. But given that no team has finished with a worse record in one run games in the past three seasons, it seems likely that the Orioles will regress towards the mean in this department in the second half.

The team's Pythagorean Record, an expected record based on runs scored and runs allowed, puts the team at 42-45. Not good certainly, but a modest improvement, and certainly closer to respectability. It certainly shows to some extent how the team's record is colored by its performance in close games.

But even better are the team's "third order" wins. Third order wins are generated in a similar manner as Pythagorean wins and losses, however instead of using runs scored and allowed, equivalent runs scored (EqR) and equivalent runs allowed (EqRA) are used. EqR and EqRA are generated using a team's batting line (and opponent's batting line for EqRA) in order to determine how many runs a team "should" have allowed or given up, a number adjusted for strength of schedule (which actually results in AEqR and AEqRA). In this calculation, the Orioles are credited with 23 additional runs scored and 17 fewer runs allowed, vaulting their "expected" record up to a touch better than 47-40.

What does any of this mean? We know that both of these adjust records will do a better job of predicting the future than will the team's current unadjusted record. So from here on out we can expect the team to play more like one which won 45 or so games in the first half rather than one which won 38 -- assuming the roster remains the same, of course.

But that doesn't matter much for this year, except for pride. Even if the team went 15 games over .500 over the final 75 games it would only get them to a shade above .500 at 83-79. That's a point of pride if you're one of the worst franchises in baseball but not if you hope to play meaningful games after the All-Star break. No, the real utility in these advanced measures is for looking at next season as a tool to assess what the Orioles need to do in the offseason. I'll try to tackle that next time.