The Birds are suddenly winning road games, taking two of three from the Mariners after taking two of three from the Yankees. They also finally got some good starting pitching as Garrett Olson went into the ninth on Friday and Jeremy Guthrie pitched a complete game on Saturday (with help from a HR saving catch from Jay Payton). Friday night was a weird game with the Mariners being shut out until the ninth when they scored five runs. They wound up with 15 hits on the night, but all of them were singles. That's the first time since 2004 a team has had that many hits without getting an extra base hit. Nice.
Danny Cabs allowed seven runs for the third time in four starts. That's. . .well, that's not at all good, folks. The game was tied 4-4 in the bottom of the seventh with Cabrera still on the mound but he got no men out while loading the bases. Jamie Walker came in and the flood gates opened, thanks in part to an error by Alex Cintron.
Adam Jones is apparently injured. Not cool. Pacman was replaced by Jay Payton on Sunday. The worst thing might be that Jones being out means Payton's rotting carcass won't be cut although it would presumably open up an outfield spot for Luis Montanez or Nolan Reimold.
Wieters Watch
Matt Wieters is no longer human. He is a robot from the planet Rygon-7 sent here to destroy the humanoids known as "pitchers". Mighty Matt went 3-3 with three, count 'em, THREE walks en route to reaching base six times. In one game. Then he came back tonight and only went 2-5 with a couple of singles.
Luis Montanez also hit his 26th HR and now leads the Eastern League in everything. Pretty nice.
Who starts for the Orioles on Tuesday? Hayden Penn seems likely, but he got hit with a bat in his start last night and lasted less than an inning. It's time for Penn to see a voodoo expert to see if he actually is cursed. It should be interesting if he does get the nod. I advocated for Penn for a long time, arguing that he wasn't getting a fair shake and that he'd be a better big leaguer than Adam Loewen. The second part of that might wind up true, but the first part is looking wrong as poor performance and injury have derailed him more than the Powers that be.
Penn is still only 23 so even though he debuted way back in the first half of 2005, he's far from ancient. The injuries have thrust him to the background as Garrett Olson took his place as the organization's future middle of the rotation starter who does nothing but own minor league hitters. Penn is out of options after this year so it will be put up or shut up time from him if he gets a few starts in Baltimore.
Of course having said all of this Lance Cormier will be the man for the job.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Saturday, August 2, 2008
School of Roch
Roch Kubatko is back. . . he's back in the saddle again, now blogging for MASN a week after leaving the Baltimore Sun. Good stuff, although MASN really needs to give him his own space on their website. Apparently he's also doing some stuff on the air for them which is good for him.
Friday, August 1, 2008
2007 Draft Review
Brian Matusz still hasn't signed a contract with the O's but all indications are that it will happen by the August 15th deadline. There's none of the intrigue that was apparent with Matt Wieters last summer, but that's not a complaint because hitting refresh a million times as midnight draws closer just shows me what a crazy person I am. But now that we're a year removed from the 2007 draft signing deadline, it might be a good time to look at the 2007 draft picks and how they've done in their first year or so of pro baseball. So here is a look at the top half-dozen prospects from that draft.
Rd 1 (#5) - C Matt Wieters, Georgia Tech: There's not much doubt that this has been a slam dunk of a pick. Wieters signed late and didn't play for the Orioles last summer, but he has shown extremely advanced skills on both sides of the ball since signing last spring, hitting .347/.447/.585 between Frederick and Bowie leaving as the only question how high he will be ranked this offseason in the various prospect rankings. He would seem to be a lock for top-three status with only Tampa Bay left hander David Price and Saint Louis CF Colby Rasmus challenging him for the top spot.
Rd 5 (#129) - P Jake Arrieta, Texas Christian: Called a "first round talent" by at least one prospect guru type, Arrieta fell to the fifth round and the Orioles made an above-slot offer to get him in the fold. He's had a fine debut season at Frederick with a 2.87 ERA over 20 starts before recently leaving the team to participate in the Olympics for the United States. Arrieta has had some control issue (4.06 BB/9), but he has been dominant (120 K in 113 innings) and should crack top 100 lists this fall.
Rd 20 (#609) - RHP Sean Gleason, Saint Mary's: Gleason had a fine debut at Bluefield (2.93 ERA in 67.2 innings), good enough for the now-22 year old to skip over the New-York Penn League and go right to Delmarva where he's continued to pitch well. In 114.1 innings, he's given up just three HR on the season and his strong ground ball tendencies could bode well for the future.
Rd 7 (#219) - CF Matt Angle, Ohio State: While Ohio State isn't one of the premier collegiate programs these days, it has turned out its share of major leaguers (47 in total) including current White Sox CF Nick Swisher. Not to draw the comparison too-far, but Angle has the great plate discipline that would have made him right at home in Billy Beane's Oakland farm system (where Swisher started) . Unfortunately his lack of power (no HR in three seasons at Ohio State) makes him a much more fringy prospect, but with some solid other numbers (.291 AVG with 97 BB in 167 pro games) and his reputation, both from scouts and statheads, of being a quality defender, he's a guy to keep an eye on.
Rd 16 (#489) - 3B Tyler Kolodny, Woodland Hills, CA: Kolodny was the Orioles' 14th pick but their first dip into the high school ranks in 2007. Kolodny started out in the complex-level Gulf Coast League, ripping pitchers to the tune of a .318/.406/.530 line, good enough to at least rate a mention among the O's better prospects. Now 20 years old, Kolodny has seen his average take a dip at Aberdeen but still has some decent indicators with 17 BB and 11 XBH in 140 AB so far. He'll need to get better, and fast, to have a viable career given that he plays at a corner position, though.
Rd 43 (#1274) - LHP Cole McCurry, Tennessee Wesleyan: Guys drafted outside of the top 1,200 from obscure non-Division I schools don't tend to be great prospects. McCurry isn't great, but he's good enough to be good. Still a month shy of his 23rd birthday, the Orioles have put him on something of a fast track as he already has 13 starts at Delmarva under his belt over the last two seasons. Don't be fooled by his unsightly ERA, his peripherals are good as he's striking out nearly a batter per inning while maintaining good command. He could stand to take a few lessons from Gleason and get the ball down. His home run rates could be an indicator that he'll be exposed when he faces stiffer competition.
Preliminary Grade: A-
Wieters alone makes for a good haul as he's the type of home-grown prospect who generates enough surplus value to make the whole endeavor of scouting and drafting young talent extremely important even with the low success rate. Kudos to the Orioles for ponying up to get him and Arrieta who helps to form a top two that not many organizations can challenge from last year's draft class. The lack of depth is what prevents this draft from being a complete success as the lack of 2nd and 3rd round picks (and the abysmal season of 4th rounder Tim Bascom at Frederick) mean that even the better second-tier prospects seem unlikely to get even cups of coffee at this point.
Rd 1 (#5) - C Matt Wieters, Georgia Tech: There's not much doubt that this has been a slam dunk of a pick. Wieters signed late and didn't play for the Orioles last summer, but he has shown extremely advanced skills on both sides of the ball since signing last spring, hitting .347/.447/.585 between Frederick and Bowie leaving as the only question how high he will be ranked this offseason in the various prospect rankings. He would seem to be a lock for top-three status with only Tampa Bay left hander David Price and Saint Louis CF Colby Rasmus challenging him for the top spot.
Rd 5 (#129) - P Jake Arrieta, Texas Christian: Called a "first round talent" by at least one prospect guru type, Arrieta fell to the fifth round and the Orioles made an above-slot offer to get him in the fold. He's had a fine debut season at Frederick with a 2.87 ERA over 20 starts before recently leaving the team to participate in the Olympics for the United States. Arrieta has had some control issue (4.06 BB/9), but he has been dominant (120 K in 113 innings) and should crack top 100 lists this fall.
Rd 20 (#609) - RHP Sean Gleason, Saint Mary's: Gleason had a fine debut at Bluefield (2.93 ERA in 67.2 innings), good enough for the now-22 year old to skip over the New-York Penn League and go right to Delmarva where he's continued to pitch well. In 114.1 innings, he's given up just three HR on the season and his strong ground ball tendencies could bode well for the future.
Rd 7 (#219) - CF Matt Angle, Ohio State: While Ohio State isn't one of the premier collegiate programs these days, it has turned out its share of major leaguers (47 in total) including current White Sox CF Nick Swisher. Not to draw the comparison too-far, but Angle has the great plate discipline that would have made him right at home in Billy Beane's Oakland farm system (where Swisher started) . Unfortunately his lack of power (no HR in three seasons at Ohio State) makes him a much more fringy prospect, but with some solid other numbers (.291 AVG with 97 BB in 167 pro games) and his reputation, both from scouts and statheads, of being a quality defender, he's a guy to keep an eye on.
Rd 16 (#489) - 3B Tyler Kolodny, Woodland Hills, CA: Kolodny was the Orioles' 14th pick but their first dip into the high school ranks in 2007. Kolodny started out in the complex-level Gulf Coast League, ripping pitchers to the tune of a .318/.406/.530 line, good enough to at least rate a mention among the O's better prospects. Now 20 years old, Kolodny has seen his average take a dip at Aberdeen but still has some decent indicators with 17 BB and 11 XBH in 140 AB so far. He'll need to get better, and fast, to have a viable career given that he plays at a corner position, though.
Rd 43 (#1274) - LHP Cole McCurry, Tennessee Wesleyan: Guys drafted outside of the top 1,200 from obscure non-Division I schools don't tend to be great prospects. McCurry isn't great, but he's good enough to be good. Still a month shy of his 23rd birthday, the Orioles have put him on something of a fast track as he already has 13 starts at Delmarva under his belt over the last two seasons. Don't be fooled by his unsightly ERA, his peripherals are good as he's striking out nearly a batter per inning while maintaining good command. He could stand to take a few lessons from Gleason and get the ball down. His home run rates could be an indicator that he'll be exposed when he faces stiffer competition.
Preliminary Grade: A-
Wieters alone makes for a good haul as he's the type of home-grown prospect who generates enough surplus value to make the whole endeavor of scouting and drafting young talent extremely important even with the low success rate. Kudos to the Orioles for ponying up to get him and Arrieta who helps to form a top two that not many organizations can challenge from last year's draft class. The lack of depth is what prevents this draft from being a complete success as the lack of 2nd and 3rd round picks (and the abysmal season of 4th rounder Tim Bascom at Frederick) mean that even the better second-tier prospects seem unlikely to get even cups of coffee at this point.
Brian Roberts, Record Breaker
Brian Roberts hit his 40th double tonight in game number 108 for the Orioles. Doing some easy math, that projects out to 60 doubles for the 2008 season. That would shatter the AL single-season record for doubles in a season by a switch hitter originally set by. . .Brian Roberts in 2004 with 50. It would also easily beat the major league record set by Lance Berkman in 2001 of 55 two-baggers. It's Roberts' fourth season (2004, 2005, 2007, 2008) with at least 40 2B.
The Baseball-Reference Play Index is fun to play around with when looking for obscure "records" that could be broken. Charlie Gehringer hit 60 two baggers with the Tigers in 1936 to set the record for most doubles by a second baseman - that mark is obviously also within Roberts' reach. BRob also has 8 triples so far, and he could join Gehringer as the only 2B to have 50 2B and 10 3B in the same season.
One record that Roberts won't be catching anytime soon is Craig Biggio's all-time record for a second baseman of 668 doubles. Roberts, now with 251, will need another decade to reach that mark. And when he does, we'll put numbers on the Warehouse (even if he gets traded!) as he chases Tris Speaker's all-time record of 792 doubles.
And speaking of Speaker (har har), one more quick fact. Roberts can become the third player ever to have 50 2B, 30 SB, and 10 3B in the same season joining Speaker of the 1912 Red Sox and Kiki Cuyler of the 1930 Cubs. Meaningless? Rare and Kurkjianian? All of the above.
The Baseball-Reference Play Index is fun to play around with when looking for obscure "records" that could be broken. Charlie Gehringer hit 60 two baggers with the Tigers in 1936 to set the record for most doubles by a second baseman - that mark is obviously also within Roberts' reach. BRob also has 8 triples so far, and he could join Gehringer as the only 2B to have 50 2B and 10 3B in the same season.
One record that Roberts won't be catching anytime soon is Craig Biggio's all-time record for a second baseman of 668 doubles. Roberts, now with 251, will need another decade to reach that mark. And when he does, we'll put numbers on the Warehouse (even if he gets traded!) as he chases Tris Speaker's all-time record of 792 doubles.
And speaking of Speaker (har har), one more quick fact. Roberts can become the third player ever to have 50 2B, 30 SB, and 10 3B in the same season joining Speaker of the 1912 Red Sox and Kiki Cuyler of the 1930 Cubs. Meaningless? Rare and Kurkjianian? All of the above.
In-season Marcel Projections
One of the bigger areas of research in current SABRmetrics is in the design of projection and forecasting systems to predict future performance. There are a bunch of systems popping up, but one of the most interesting is the MARCEL system, developed by Tom Tango. It's not interesting because it's complex, but rather because it's so damn simple. All it does is to take a weighted average of previous seasons, apply some regression to the mean and some age adjustment, and BAM!, there's your projection. It's actually named after Marcel the monkey because of its deliberate simplicity.
It's also interesting because it's completely open-source which means you can actually see where the results come from. And despite this lack of complexity, it still stacks up well to the other projection systems floating around out there. The projections have been typically released before the season, but Sal Baxamusa at the Hardball Times has developed a spreadsheet which you can use to calculate in-season MARCEL projections. Too lazy for that? (I'm nodding my head.) Just head over to Colin Wyers' site where he's written some code and is displaying the projections in real-time.
The best hitter right now - or at least the hitter with the best projection going forward, if you believe there's a difference - is Albert Pujols who checks in with a .333/.438/.603 line. He absolutely laps the field, coming in with a projected OPS over 50 points higher than the nearest competitors. Those competitors are David Ortiz (.293/.404/.586), who still looks good after this season's injury-marred performance, and Alex Rodriguez (.305/.404/.583).
A few Orioles' notables:
Nick Markakis (.303/.378/.481, +24 lwts) - A little pessimistic in my view. Of course I don't say that as an unbiased observer, but rather as a guy who is a huge Markakis fan. I'd still bet the over on that OPS over his next 600 PA.
Aubrey Huff (.270/.335/.456, +6 lwts) - The power of regression to the mean combined with its good friend, aging. Marcel the monkey throws cold water in our faces regarding Huff's big season, projecting him for just a .791 OPS, well in line with the .778 OPS he compiled from 2005-2007. This is why, at best, we should be cautious about Huff even approaching, let alone matching, this season's numbers in 2009.
Luke Scott (.268/.355/.488, +18) - Luke Scott, on the other hand, is a guy we might be able to count on in the future. Or at least next season. The system likes him so much that even with Scott being 30 and putting up a nice season that it thinks he's playing a few points of OPS below what he's capable of doing. Not a bad pickup in the Tejada (current projection: .300/.349/.470[!?]) trade.
Adam Jones (.270/.317/.405, -9) - That's a tick under where he's at this year, and as with Markakis, you think (hope) he can do better than that going forward. One issue with the system is that it doesn't know anything about minor league performance. If we looked at translated minor league stats, as a system like PECOTA does, we'd see why Orioles fans would call that projection pessimistic, but that's one of the issues that you have to be cognizant of with MARCEL.
The worst projection in the system goes to the immortal Corky Miller, a 32 year old journeyman backup catcher with a career .179/.269/.295 line in 378 PA over the last 8 seasons. Even Miller can't be that bad, says Marcel, as he's projected for a .182/.244/.300 line going forward.
It's also interesting because it's completely open-source which means you can actually see where the results come from. And despite this lack of complexity, it still stacks up well to the other projection systems floating around out there. The projections have been typically released before the season, but Sal Baxamusa at the Hardball Times has developed a spreadsheet which you can use to calculate in-season MARCEL projections. Too lazy for that? (I'm nodding my head.) Just head over to Colin Wyers' site where he's written some code and is displaying the projections in real-time.
The best hitter right now - or at least the hitter with the best projection going forward, if you believe there's a difference - is Albert Pujols who checks in with a .333/.438/.603 line. He absolutely laps the field, coming in with a projected OPS over 50 points higher than the nearest competitors. Those competitors are David Ortiz (.293/.404/.586), who still looks good after this season's injury-marred performance, and Alex Rodriguez (.305/.404/.583).
A few Orioles' notables:
Nick Markakis (.303/.378/.481, +24 lwts) - A little pessimistic in my view. Of course I don't say that as an unbiased observer, but rather as a guy who is a huge Markakis fan. I'd still bet the over on that OPS over his next 600 PA.
Aubrey Huff (.270/.335/.456, +6 lwts) - The power of regression to the mean combined with its good friend, aging. Marcel the monkey throws cold water in our faces regarding Huff's big season, projecting him for just a .791 OPS, well in line with the .778 OPS he compiled from 2005-2007. This is why, at best, we should be cautious about Huff even approaching, let alone matching, this season's numbers in 2009.
Luke Scott (.268/.355/.488, +18) - Luke Scott, on the other hand, is a guy we might be able to count on in the future. Or at least next season. The system likes him so much that even with Scott being 30 and putting up a nice season that it thinks he's playing a few points of OPS below what he's capable of doing. Not a bad pickup in the Tejada (current projection: .300/.349/.470[!?]) trade.
Adam Jones (.270/.317/.405, -9) - That's a tick under where he's at this year, and as with Markakis, you think (hope) he can do better than that going forward. One issue with the system is that it doesn't know anything about minor league performance. If we looked at translated minor league stats, as a system like PECOTA does, we'd see why Orioles fans would call that projection pessimistic, but that's one of the issues that you have to be cognizant of with MARCEL.
The worst projection in the system goes to the immortal Corky Miller, a 32 year old journeyman backup catcher with a career .179/.269/.295 line in 378 PA over the last 8 seasons. Even Miller can't be that bad, says Marcel, as he's projected for a .182/.244/.300 line going forward.
All Quiet
The non-waiver trade deadline came and went without the Orioles moving anyone despite a couple possible sell-high pieces (Huff, Sherrill) and a few Proven Veterans that might have been in demand for a few teams (Hernandez, Millar, Bradford). There's still some time for a deal to be made by August 31st, but it seems like a longshot that Huff and Sherrill, the two biggest pieces to be dealt, would even clear waivers, let alone be traded. Something on the level of last year's Steve Trachsel trade would seem to be the upper limit on what could happen. Perhaps a team gets desperate for middle relief and gives up a nice prospect for Chad Bradford.
The Orioles also made a roster move, sending Brian Burres down to Norfolk and activating Alex Cintron as the Orioles' fascination with having three light-hitting SS on the roster (current version: Castro, Fahey, Cintron) continues. Another roster move would seem likely as the team needs at least one more starter. Garrett Olson and Jeremy Guthrie start the next two days. Then, assuming he appeals his suspension, Daniel Cabrera goes on Sunday in the finale at Seattle. Dennis Sarfate is in line to get his second start on Monday, assuming the team wasn't horrified by his outing against the Yankees. Tuesday's start is still up in there. Bowie's Brad Bergesen and Norfolk's Hayden Penn seem like the likely options with Lance Cormier moving out of the pen perhaps a possibility.
Wieters Watch
Matt Wieters got only one plate appearance for Frederick as a pinch hitter after getting the night off, but he came through with a single to raise his Bowie line to .365/.463/.625 in 104 AB.
The Orioles also made a roster move, sending Brian Burres down to Norfolk and activating Alex Cintron as the Orioles' fascination with having three light-hitting SS on the roster (current version: Castro, Fahey, Cintron) continues. Another roster move would seem likely as the team needs at least one more starter. Garrett Olson and Jeremy Guthrie start the next two days. Then, assuming he appeals his suspension, Daniel Cabrera goes on Sunday in the finale at Seattle. Dennis Sarfate is in line to get his second start on Monday, assuming the team wasn't horrified by his outing against the Yankees. Tuesday's start is still up in there. Bowie's Brad Bergesen and Norfolk's Hayden Penn seem like the likely options with Lance Cormier moving out of the pen perhaps a possibility.
Wieters Watch
Matt Wieters got only one plate appearance for Frederick as a pinch hitter after getting the night off, but he came through with a single to raise his Bowie line to .365/.463/.625 in 104 AB.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Optimal Roster Construction, part 1,401
The recent roster moves have made it hard to tell what the Orioles are doing with the pitching staff right now, but in the end, there are 13 pitchers on the roster, with only four of them - Dennis Sarfate, Jeremy Guthrie, Garret Olson, and Daniel Cabrera - in the starting rotation.
For the time being, at least until the Orioles make a move to get a fifth starter on the team, there are nine relievers down in the pen. Nine!
Is there ANY need to ever have that many guys in your bullpen? Right now, with Juan Castro slowly taking over the starting SS job, the bench consists of Brandon Fahey, Jay Payton and Guillermo Quiroz. It's been discussed many times before, but that's just an awful bench. Payton is the closest thing to a hitter in the bunch, and he's currently sporting a .653 OPS. The biggest piece of strategy that Trembley can employ in the late innings of a close game is to pinch-hit Payton for Castro, move Payton to LF as a defensive sub for Luke Scott, and insert Fahey as the new SS. That's not really all that viable, but hey, they've made their choice to go for broke on having pitching and defense (supposedly) over any type of offensive flexibility.
But hey, Juan Castro smacked a homerun today, so maybe we've found our SS for the next 25 years? Castro did manage to beat Fahey in the race to get to 1 HR first, even with the head start he spotted Fahey. I'm actually shocked because looking at Castro I thought that even if he made good contact he'd just slap the ball to the outfield at best.
Speaking of Sarfate (we were earlier at least), his first start wasn't a total disaster. Of course I'm grading that from the perspective of "Sarfate won't last three innings" as a baseline. He actually lasted four, striking out five, and allowing just five base runners. Unfortunately all five of those guys (three of whom reached on walks) came around to score so that made for an ugly line. The guy who didn't help himself at all was the guy who just lost his starting spot, Brian Burres. He came into the game in the fifth with the game still in reach (5-2 Yankees) and after pitching a fine fifth inning, got only one out in the sixth before being lifted, eventually being charged with four runs. His roster spot is getting to be pretty tenuous as that ERA climbs close to 6.00 and he struggles in his new role as a long reliever.
Next up could be Hayden Penn or Brad Bergesen. Possibly both, as the Orioles will be needing both a fifth starter and a replacement for Sarfate in the coming weeks. Bergesen just threw a shutout for Bowie in his last start to get his 13th win of the season, and Penn had a nice start down at Norfolk. Neither of these guys are among the best arms down on the farm, but they may be the most ready, so they'll be pressed into action soon enough. Here's hoping Bowie's Jason Berken gets a look too. He's a guy I think has been a bit underrated this season.
Wieters Watch
Matthew "Babe" Wieters and his big blue Ox took it to New Britain last night to the tune of 4-5 with a double and another HR, his 21st of the year. That brings his current line up to a modest .350/.449/.600 with Bowie, .347/.448/.584. With that monster night he actually nudged his AA OPS back ahead of the OPS he had in A ball. Wieters currently ranks fifth in the minors in OPS among those with at least 300 PA, 13th among those with 150 PA.
For the time being, at least until the Orioles make a move to get a fifth starter on the team, there are nine relievers down in the pen. Nine!
Is there ANY need to ever have that many guys in your bullpen? Right now, with Juan Castro slowly taking over the starting SS job, the bench consists of Brandon Fahey, Jay Payton and Guillermo Quiroz. It's been discussed many times before, but that's just an awful bench. Payton is the closest thing to a hitter in the bunch, and he's currently sporting a .653 OPS. The biggest piece of strategy that Trembley can employ in the late innings of a close game is to pinch-hit Payton for Castro, move Payton to LF as a defensive sub for Luke Scott, and insert Fahey as the new SS. That's not really all that viable, but hey, they've made their choice to go for broke on having pitching and defense (supposedly) over any type of offensive flexibility.
But hey, Juan Castro smacked a homerun today, so maybe we've found our SS for the next 25 years? Castro did manage to beat Fahey in the race to get to 1 HR first, even with the head start he spotted Fahey. I'm actually shocked because looking at Castro I thought that even if he made good contact he'd just slap the ball to the outfield at best.
Speaking of Sarfate (we were earlier at least), his first start wasn't a total disaster. Of course I'm grading that from the perspective of "Sarfate won't last three innings" as a baseline. He actually lasted four, striking out five, and allowing just five base runners. Unfortunately all five of those guys (three of whom reached on walks) came around to score so that made for an ugly line. The guy who didn't help himself at all was the guy who just lost his starting spot, Brian Burres. He came into the game in the fifth with the game still in reach (5-2 Yankees) and after pitching a fine fifth inning, got only one out in the sixth before being lifted, eventually being charged with four runs. His roster spot is getting to be pretty tenuous as that ERA climbs close to 6.00 and he struggles in his new role as a long reliever.
Next up could be Hayden Penn or Brad Bergesen. Possibly both, as the Orioles will be needing both a fifth starter and a replacement for Sarfate in the coming weeks. Bergesen just threw a shutout for Bowie in his last start to get his 13th win of the season, and Penn had a nice start down at Norfolk. Neither of these guys are among the best arms down on the farm, but they may be the most ready, so they'll be pressed into action soon enough. Here's hoping Bowie's Jason Berken gets a look too. He's a guy I think has been a bit underrated this season.
Wieters Watch
Matthew "Babe" Wieters and his big blue Ox took it to New Britain last night to the tune of 4-5 with a double and another HR, his 21st of the year. That brings his current line up to a modest .350/.449/.600 with Bowie, .347/.448/.584. With that monster night he actually nudged his AA OPS back ahead of the OPS he had in A ball. Wieters currently ranks fifth in the minors in OPS among those with at least 300 PA, 13th among those with 150 PA.
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