When evaluating a young pitcher, or really any pitcher, the one question that often comes up is "does he miss bats?" Does the pitcher strike hitters out or does he rely on his defense to generate outs? David Hernandez is a pitcher that will strike batters out. In his final regular season start, Hernandez struck out an absurd 18 Winston-Salem batters and on the season he fanned 168 batters in 145.1 innings over 27 starts.
Hernandez, 22, was taken in the 2005 17th round out of Consumnes River JC in Sacramento and has put up big K numbers ever since, striking out over a batter per inning in Aberdeen in his pro debut in 2005 before doing the same last season at Delmarva. He improved quite a bit on his already lofty totals, fanning 14 more batters in just 1/3 of an inning more.
Hernandez has control problems, though perhaps not quite as acute as Radhames Liz or others in the system. His pro BB/9 rate is a high but not unmanageable 3.66, but he also has 34 wild pitches and has hit 21 batters in the past two seasons. Add that to a fly ball tendency (16 HR allowed) and a 4.95 ERA (skewed by some lousy luck on balls in play) and it's easy to see the reason for tempered enthusiasm. Even so, you'd have to think that a guy who can record so many outs without the use of his defense will have a role in the majors somewhere.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
#19 Zach Britton
Britton did nothing special in his pro debut at Bluefield last season, but he did enough at Aberdeen in 2007 to make himself interesting. The one aspect of his game that stands out is that he gets hitters to beat the ball into the ground. Britton gave up just one homer in Aberdeen this season over 15 starts (63.2 IP). Lefties who can get ground balls have a future. The ones that have mediocre strikeout numbers and haven't reached full season ball need more time to develop.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Tejada and Changing Positions
There has been increasing speculation around the Orioles that if Miguel Tejada is on the team next season, it will be at another position, possibly 3B. Jeff Zrebiec wrote an illuminating article in The Sun about the issue yesterday.
The saying is that where there's smoke, there's fire. That might not be the case here, but it's almost undoubtedly true that the some of the folks running the club can envision a scenario where Luis Hernandez takes over as the everyday SS next season. If that's the case, it's very disturbing whether or not Hernandez eventually gets the job or not.
The idea that Hernandez is a viable SS candidate at this point rejects nearly every accepted notion about the value of defense relative to offense, the tradeoffs between the two, and the utility of minor league performance as a projection for major league performance. Hernandez put together an abysmal .244/.276/.312 season at the plate for Bowie and Norfolk in 2007. Even if he experienced no drop off at all in offensive production after a move to the majors, no amount of defensive acumen, even relative to the worst defending SS in the majors (not Tejada), would make up for a .588 OPS.
Baseball Prospectus' Rate stat marks Hernandez as a +9 above average defender and Tejada as a -8 defender. Keep in mind the sample size issues present not only for Hernandez but Tejada as well. There is some inherent error in these numbers for a variety of reasons, but it confirms the notion that Hernandez has been better - much better - defensively than Tejada in 2007.
Let's look at this in terms of winning games. To this end, we'll use WARP as an indicator of a player's contribution towards winning. It's far from a perfect metric, but it can give us a rough idea of the relative value of a player.
Hernandez has accumulated 0.3 WARP in 120 innings of play this year. Projecting that out to 150 full games (about 1350 innings), we can estimate that Hernandez is roughly 3.4 win player. That's not great, but it's certainly a healthy contribution you'd expect from an average player like Melvin Mora or Kevin Millar.
Tejada has played 1002.7 innings this season and totaled 3.5 WARP. Projecting that figure over 150 full games, we see that Tejada projects to about 4.7 WARP for a full season. That means that moving Tejada from SS in favor of Hernandez results in a net loss of about one win over the course of the season, probably a bit more.
But there's a fallacy here. As we project these numbers out to a full season and to next season, we assume that Hernandez can repeat his current .705 major league OPS. We assume that Miguel Tejada will not improve on his .801 OPS, his worst since 1999. And finally we assume that Tejada won't even approach the defensive prowess he exhibited in his first three seasons as an Oriole when he ranged from a +2 to a +14 defender.
If Hernandez regresses back to his minor league offensive numbers, which he almost certainly will, we see an even bigger gap between him and Tejada. If Tejada manages to play midway between where he was in 2006 (when he had an 8.2 WARP) and where he has so far this season, the gap widens still more. What might only be a one win gap under the assumptions that each of the two is playing to their true talent level can easily expand to a four win gap.
There are other considerations. Moving Tejada to 3B is an offensive upgrade over Melvin Mora, although Mora is rated as a +4 defender there this season and it isn't clear that Tejada would field that well after moving to a new position. On the whole, Tejada is a likely upgrade over Mora while Mora would be an upgrade over Jay Payton and Jay Gibbons, assuming he were to be moved to LF.
It would seem that these moves have the chance to be a net zero in terms of wins, although that seems close to a best case scenario. It is quite probable that playing Luis Hernandez as the everyday SS results in a loss of wins. In either scenario, the team is losing several wins on the table by moving Tejada off of SS that must be recouped elsewhere. And at 65-87, it should be quite clear that upgrades must be made. Simply breaking even is not a viable option at all.
The saying is that where there's smoke, there's fire. That might not be the case here, but it's almost undoubtedly true that the some of the folks running the club can envision a scenario where Luis Hernandez takes over as the everyday SS next season. If that's the case, it's very disturbing whether or not Hernandez eventually gets the job or not.
The idea that Hernandez is a viable SS candidate at this point rejects nearly every accepted notion about the value of defense relative to offense, the tradeoffs between the two, and the utility of minor league performance as a projection for major league performance. Hernandez put together an abysmal .244/.276/.312 season at the plate for Bowie and Norfolk in 2007. Even if he experienced no drop off at all in offensive production after a move to the majors, no amount of defensive acumen, even relative to the worst defending SS in the majors (not Tejada), would make up for a .588 OPS.
Baseball Prospectus' Rate stat marks Hernandez as a +9 above average defender and Tejada as a -8 defender. Keep in mind the sample size issues present not only for Hernandez but Tejada as well. There is some inherent error in these numbers for a variety of reasons, but it confirms the notion that Hernandez has been better - much better - defensively than Tejada in 2007.
Let's look at this in terms of winning games. To this end, we'll use WARP as an indicator of a player's contribution towards winning. It's far from a perfect metric, but it can give us a rough idea of the relative value of a player.
Hernandez has accumulated 0.3 WARP in 120 innings of play this year. Projecting that out to 150 full games (about 1350 innings), we can estimate that Hernandez is roughly 3.4 win player. That's not great, but it's certainly a healthy contribution you'd expect from an average player like Melvin Mora or Kevin Millar.
Tejada has played 1002.7 innings this season and totaled 3.5 WARP. Projecting that figure over 150 full games, we see that Tejada projects to about 4.7 WARP for a full season. That means that moving Tejada from SS in favor of Hernandez results in a net loss of about one win over the course of the season, probably a bit more.
But there's a fallacy here. As we project these numbers out to a full season and to next season, we assume that Hernandez can repeat his current .705 major league OPS. We assume that Miguel Tejada will not improve on his .801 OPS, his worst since 1999. And finally we assume that Tejada won't even approach the defensive prowess he exhibited in his first three seasons as an Oriole when he ranged from a +2 to a +14 defender.
If Hernandez regresses back to his minor league offensive numbers, which he almost certainly will, we see an even bigger gap between him and Tejada. If Tejada manages to play midway between where he was in 2006 (when he had an 8.2 WARP) and where he has so far this season, the gap widens still more. What might only be a one win gap under the assumptions that each of the two is playing to their true talent level can easily expand to a four win gap.
There are other considerations. Moving Tejada to 3B is an offensive upgrade over Melvin Mora, although Mora is rated as a +4 defender there this season and it isn't clear that Tejada would field that well after moving to a new position. On the whole, Tejada is a likely upgrade over Mora while Mora would be an upgrade over Jay Payton and Jay Gibbons, assuming he were to be moved to LF.
It would seem that these moves have the chance to be a net zero in terms of wins, although that seems close to a best case scenario. It is quite probable that playing Luis Hernandez as the everyday SS results in a loss of wins. In either scenario, the team is losing several wins on the table by moving Tejada off of SS that must be recouped elsewhere. And at 65-87, it should be quite clear that upgrades must be made. Simply breaking even is not a viable option at all.
Monday, September 17, 2007
What's next for Daniel Cabrera?
I've been a Daniel Cabrera defender for quite a while now. Not one of those folks who still compares him to Randy Johnson and talks wistfully of his upside. No, I've been sure for some time that Cabrera was never going to reach those wild expectations. But he's a guy who is still three years away from free agency after this year. Given the money spent on mediocre starters in the free agent market, if Cabrera can put up his customary 4.50-5.00 ERA, he has value. With a bit of improvement, he becomes an incredibly valuable commodity.
But with tonight's latest debacle against the Yankees, Cabrera drops to 9-17 with a 5.51 ERA. He has given up 104 walks and 25 homers on the season. That ERA puts him in a tie for 36th in the AL among qualifying starters ahead of only Jose Contreras. His 4.6 BB/G ranks him dead last among qualifiers despite a radical improvement in that area this season. He has a 5.12 FIP ERA - that also puts him dead last in the league. And if you care about more traditional stats, his 17 losses is also - you guessed it - dead last in the AL.
Cabrera still has problems with walks, and what's worse, he isn't striking out as many batters and he's getting hit harder. While he was certainly never dominant, he did show flashes of dominance, but those have become much harder to come by this season. At this point it's hard to consider him to even be an acceptable 5th starter.
Even with any residual perceived "upside" or "potential", Cabrera's complete lack of progress at the major league level makes his trade value fairly close to nonexistent. A role in the bullpen could help refine his mechanics and shave down the walks through more frequent usage while allowing Cabrera to throw at max effort for short periods rather than pacing himself for 110 pitches. Assuming that Hayden Penn and Garrett Olson are ready for primetime (a big assumption perhaps), Cabrera's optimal role might be in the bullpen. However, unless he morphs into the relief ace the team needs, it would seem to be a waste to trade 210 innings of a mediocre Cabrera for 70 innings of a slightly improved Cabrera.
In a sense this discussion is probably pointless. Cabrera, along with Erik Bedard, Adam Loewen, and Jeremy Guthrie would seem to be near-locks for the team's Opening Day Rotation. But with Penn, Olson, and Liz in the pipeline behind him, he may need to earn the rotation slot. And that's for the best since Cabrera is a 5th starter at this point.
But with tonight's latest debacle against the Yankees, Cabrera drops to 9-17 with a 5.51 ERA. He has given up 104 walks and 25 homers on the season. That ERA puts him in a tie for 36th in the AL among qualifying starters ahead of only Jose Contreras. His 4.6 BB/G ranks him dead last among qualifiers despite a radical improvement in that area this season. He has a 5.12 FIP ERA - that also puts him dead last in the league. And if you care about more traditional stats, his 17 losses is also - you guessed it - dead last in the AL.
Cabrera still has problems with walks, and what's worse, he isn't striking out as many batters and he's getting hit harder. While he was certainly never dominant, he did show flashes of dominance, but those have become much harder to come by this season. At this point it's hard to consider him to even be an acceptable 5th starter.
Even with any residual perceived "upside" or "potential", Cabrera's complete lack of progress at the major league level makes his trade value fairly close to nonexistent. A role in the bullpen could help refine his mechanics and shave down the walks through more frequent usage while allowing Cabrera to throw at max effort for short periods rather than pacing himself for 110 pitches. Assuming that Hayden Penn and Garrett Olson are ready for primetime (a big assumption perhaps), Cabrera's optimal role might be in the bullpen. However, unless he morphs into the relief ace the team needs, it would seem to be a waste to trade 210 innings of a mediocre Cabrera for 70 innings of a slightly improved Cabrera.
In a sense this discussion is probably pointless. Cabrera, along with Erik Bedard, Adam Loewen, and Jeremy Guthrie would seem to be near-locks for the team's Opening Day Rotation. But with Penn, Olson, and Liz in the pipeline behind him, he may need to earn the rotation slot. And that's for the best since Cabrera is a 5th starter at this point.
#20 Brad Bergesen
Brad Bergesen was the Orioles' 4th round pick (#109 overall) in the 2004 amateur draft. He was their third pick in that draft behind P Wade Townsend and OF Jeff Fiorentino. The then-18-year-old Bergesen was signed out of Foothill HS in Pleasanton for the tidy sum of $310k and would begin his pro career later that season with Bluefield of the Appalachian League.
Bergesen made it to Aberdeen in 2005, and although his performance record was undistinguished that season, he made his way to Delmarva to begin the 2006 season, an impressive feat for a 20 year old starting pitcher. Bergesen's record with the Shorebirds was that of a finesse pitcher - just 49 k's with 97 hits in 86 innings. But what made Bergesen interesting was the mere 10 walks he allowed on the season, good for a tidy 4.9 K/BB.
Bergesen isn't a finesse pitcher, though. His "stuff" is solid and despite the lack of strikeouts his accomplishments aren't the result of smoke and mirrors or feasting on younger competition. His season at Delmarva was solid, but it wasn't even good enough to merit a mention by prospect guru John Sickels in his list of top Orioles' farmhands.
Returning to Delmarva for the start of the 2007 season, he continued his success with a 73/17 K:BB in almost 100 innings of work. His ERA was an outstanding 2.19 after 15 starts, and that was good enough to get him promoted to Frederick for a shot in their rotation. Bergesen floundered somewhat in the more advanced Carolina League, posting a 5.75 ERA in 10 starts, although with a very solid 35/9 K:BB and a near total lack of luck (.374 BABIP) were looming beneath the surface.
One of the things that made Bergesen an interesting prospect after this season was that he induced quite a few more balls on the ground this season, going from a 1.17 G/F in 2006 to a scintillating 2.14 ratio in 2007, a tendency that led to a minuscule 7 HR in 150.2 innings pitched. The lack of strikeouts is concerning, but when mitigated by extreme control and the ability to avoid homers and to keep the ball on the ground, it's not a deal breaker. It should be noted that in addition to his low walk totals, Bergesen hit 14 batters on the season.
Bergesen will likely start next season as part of the Frederick rotation. It will be a crucial year for him to prove that he is a legitimate name to remember in the future rather than a borderline prospect in the vein of Jim Johnson.
first in a series of Prospect Profiles
Bergesen made it to Aberdeen in 2005, and although his performance record was undistinguished that season, he made his way to Delmarva to begin the 2006 season, an impressive feat for a 20 year old starting pitcher. Bergesen's record with the Shorebirds was that of a finesse pitcher - just 49 k's with 97 hits in 86 innings. But what made Bergesen interesting was the mere 10 walks he allowed on the season, good for a tidy 4.9 K/BB.
Bergesen isn't a finesse pitcher, though. His "stuff" is solid and despite the lack of strikeouts his accomplishments aren't the result of smoke and mirrors or feasting on younger competition. His season at Delmarva was solid, but it wasn't even good enough to merit a mention by prospect guru John Sickels in his list of top Orioles' farmhands.
Returning to Delmarva for the start of the 2007 season, he continued his success with a 73/17 K:BB in almost 100 innings of work. His ERA was an outstanding 2.19 after 15 starts, and that was good enough to get him promoted to Frederick for a shot in their rotation. Bergesen floundered somewhat in the more advanced Carolina League, posting a 5.75 ERA in 10 starts, although with a very solid 35/9 K:BB and a near total lack of luck (.374 BABIP) were looming beneath the surface.
One of the things that made Bergesen an interesting prospect after this season was that he induced quite a few more balls on the ground this season, going from a 1.17 G/F in 2006 to a scintillating 2.14 ratio in 2007, a tendency that led to a minuscule 7 HR in 150.2 innings pitched. The lack of strikeouts is concerning, but when mitigated by extreme control and the ability to avoid homers and to keep the ball on the ground, it's not a deal breaker. It should be noted that in addition to his low walk totals, Bergesen hit 14 batters on the season.
Bergesen will likely start next season as part of the Frederick rotation. It will be a crucial year for him to prove that he is a legitimate name to remember in the future rather than a borderline prospect in the vein of Jim Johnson.
first in a series of Prospect Profiles
Orioles Top Twenty
1. Matt Wieters
2. Billy Rowell
3. Garrett Olson
4. Nolan Reimold
5. Brandon Erbe
6. Scott Moore
7. Radhames Liz
8. Brandon Snyder
9. James Hoey
10. Chorye Spoone
11. Pedro Beato
12. Jake Arrieta
13. Brandon Tripp
14. Christopher Vinyard
15. Timothy Bascom
16. Jeff Fiorentino
17. Blake Davis
18. David Hernandez
19. Zach Britton
20. Brad Bergesen
2. Billy Rowell
3. Garrett Olson
4. Nolan Reimold
5. Brandon Erbe
6. Scott Moore
7. Radhames Liz
8. Brandon Snyder
9. James Hoey
10. Chorye Spoone
11. Pedro Beato
12. Jake Arrieta
13. Brandon Tripp
14. Christopher Vinyard
15. Timothy Bascom
16. Jeff Fiorentino
17. Blake Davis
18. David Hernandez
19. Zach Britton
20. Brad Bergesen
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Keys Win
Of the nine teams in the Orioles' organization, the only one to make the playoffs was the High-A Frederick Keys of the Carolina League. Even the Keys limped into the playoffs, finishing only 64-74 on the season. Frederick won the North Division in the first half with a record of 32-37. That same record in the second half was good enough for only third in the four team division.
The Keys - led by a rotation that included Chorye Spoone, David Hernandez, Jason Berken and Brandon Erbe - finished 7th in the 8 team Carolina League in both runs scored and runs allowed on the year. They were outscored by a whopping 154 runs in their 138 games. To say they were an underdog in the playoffs would probably have been an understatement.
But anything can happen in a short series. We all know that. Facing the Wilmington Blue Rocks, a Royals affiliate in the best-of-3 North Division playoffs, the Keys won back to back games, 9-2 and 3-1 to take the series in two straight. After pounding out 17 hits and getting 7 strong innings from starter Brad Bergesen in game 1, the Keys got a tremendous start from rising star Chorye Spoone in the clincher, a complete game one hitter that featured 9 strikeouts from Spoone. The no-hitter was not spoiled until the 9th inning on a two out homerun. But Spoone was not yet done with his postseason heroics.
Next up were the Salem Avalanche of the Astros' organization in a best-of-five series. The Keys took the first game in a tight one, riding another seven inning pitching performance, this time from David Hernandez, to a tough 3-2 win. Salem won the next game 8-4, but Frederick retook the series with a 6-4 win on the road.
The Keys had their ace Spoone back on the hill for the possible series clinching win. Once again Spoone took a shutout into the ninth, leading 5-0. Spoone failed once again to get the shutout, giving up a run on three hits to the Avalanche in the ninth. But more importantly, Spoone suceeded in closing out the win. The single run was accompanied by a whopping 11 hits, but Spoone pitched well enough to strike out 8 and won a well deserved series MVP award.
Congratulations to the Frederick Keys for their second Mills Cup win in three years. Look for Spoone, Erbe, and a few others in the upcoming Orioles Top 20 prospects list.
The Keys - led by a rotation that included Chorye Spoone, David Hernandez, Jason Berken and Brandon Erbe - finished 7th in the 8 team Carolina League in both runs scored and runs allowed on the year. They were outscored by a whopping 154 runs in their 138 games. To say they were an underdog in the playoffs would probably have been an understatement.
But anything can happen in a short series. We all know that. Facing the Wilmington Blue Rocks, a Royals affiliate in the best-of-3 North Division playoffs, the Keys won back to back games, 9-2 and 3-1 to take the series in two straight. After pounding out 17 hits and getting 7 strong innings from starter Brad Bergesen in game 1, the Keys got a tremendous start from rising star Chorye Spoone in the clincher, a complete game one hitter that featured 9 strikeouts from Spoone. The no-hitter was not spoiled until the 9th inning on a two out homerun. But Spoone was not yet done with his postseason heroics.
Next up were the Salem Avalanche of the Astros' organization in a best-of-five series. The Keys took the first game in a tight one, riding another seven inning pitching performance, this time from David Hernandez, to a tough 3-2 win. Salem won the next game 8-4, but Frederick retook the series with a 6-4 win on the road.
The Keys had their ace Spoone back on the hill for the possible series clinching win. Once again Spoone took a shutout into the ninth, leading 5-0. Spoone failed once again to get the shutout, giving up a run on three hits to the Avalanche in the ninth. But more importantly, Spoone suceeded in closing out the win. The single run was accompanied by a whopping 11 hits, but Spoone pitched well enough to strike out 8 and won a well deserved series MVP award.
Congratulations to the Frederick Keys for their second Mills Cup win in three years. Look for Spoone, Erbe, and a few others in the upcoming Orioles Top 20 prospects list.
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